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Avalanche Advisory for 2013-12-15 07:18:45

  • EXPIRED ON December 16, 2013 @ 7:18 am
    Published on December 15, 2013 @ 7:18 am
  • Issued by -

The tree is up, the lights are strung,
Are we having any fun?
Skis are sharpened, bases waxed,
But most are feeling mentally taxed.
Thinking, dreaming, dancing...
Praying for blessed snow to come,
So we can begin to shred our favorite run.
Skis, snowboard, snowmobile, snowshoe,
All have toys of choice...
So lets get together and do a dance for snow rejoice!

The Mt Shasta Avalanche Center, while eagerly waiting for snow, is busy planning for a great season. Stay tuned for always the latest.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

No current avalanche forecast is available

No current avalanche forecast is available

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
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    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
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    Very Large
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The avalanche danger on Mt Shasta's glaciers is low. Skiing on the glaciers at this time is rough, icy and new snow from the past couple weeks is scarce. Any skiing on the north or east side glaciers would be not for the faint of heart! Be cautious of open bergshrunds, crevasses, ice patches, and rock/ice fall. Self arrest may be difficult with current conditions.



 

Recent Observations

Mt. Shasta and mountinous areas west of I-5 look like giant heaps of salt and pepper... defined: salt = snow, pepper = rocks!  Patchy snow up to 7 inches deep can be found above 6,500 feet. The Everitt Memorial Highway, past the locked gate at Bunny Flat, is covered in snow and would allow cross-country skiing for 3 miles up into the Old Ski Bowl parking lot. The Sand Flat winter trails are also covered in a small amount of snow and folks have been xc-skiing out there. The west side of the forecast area has less snow. I was able to drive all the way to Cedar Lake a few days ago and walked the remaining distance into Cliff Lake. Ice skating was good here, with a couple inches of light density snow on top of solid, smooth ice. Castle Lake is partially frozen and no skiing being had there currently. Warmer temperatures in recent days is shrinking our already meager snowpack... if you could even call it a snowpack! Waiting for snow...


Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

SnowpackIf snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.



 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have clear skies with an inversion in place. The current temperature of 34F.


    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...


    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, we have no new snow, with a snow depth total of appoximately 8 inches in more shaded areas. The current temperature is 43F with a low of 41F and a high of 52F.


    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 46F. Temps have ranged from a low of 43F to a high 51F. Winds have average 2mph and variable in directions. Gusts hit 14 mph from the west/northwest.


    Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of I-5)... 


    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 46F with a low of 38F and a high of 52F. No new snow overnight with a current snowpack of about 7-8 inches in more shaded areas.


    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 36F with a low of 34F and a high of 51F. Winds have been calm, 0-5 mph with gusts to 6 mph, west/southwest.


    THIS SEASON:  Since September 1st, we have received 2.81 inches of water, normal is 11.35 inches, putting us at 24% of normal. For the month of December, Mt Shasta has received .23 inches of water with normal being 3.32 inches, which is 6% of normal. For the year, Mt Shasta has received 9.99 inches of water, normal is 38.68 inches, putting us at 25% of normal for 2013.


    WEATHER SYNOPSIS:


    Warm and dry weather with sunny skies and high pressure over the area will finish off our weekend and host the start of the coming week. Valley fog, morning inversions and a bit of air stagnation may occur in low lying areas. Winds will be light and variable. The next chance at winter will occur  with some northerly flow punching into the area Wednesday afternoon/evening with snow levels below town, though precipitation is expected to be discontinuous. As with most northerly flows, temperatures are cooler, with dry air.


     


     

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 43
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 52
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: Variable
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 2 mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 14 mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
    Total snow depth: 0-7 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Sunday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Sunday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Monday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather Sunny Mostly clear Sunny
    Temperature (°F) 50 35 50
    Wind (mi/hr) Northerly 0-5 Northeast 0-5 Northeast 0-5
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Sunday Sunday Night Monday
    Weather Sunny Mostly clear Sunny
    Temperature (°F) 45 29 45
    Wind (mi/hr) West 15-25 West 0 West 15-25
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.