Avalanche Advisory for 2015-03-07 06:56:21

It's got the feeling that Spring has arrived!  The strength and longevity of the high pressure ridge that is currently dominating the region is bringing some pretty warm weather for this time of year.  Despite it's official beginning on March 20th, Spring is set to appear with the first progressive Spring-like weather pattern for the coming week.  This means the potential for some wetter weather in the long term, but let's focus on the "now".  For today and Sunday the warmer than normal temperatures will persist with day time high's at the mid elevations (8,000-11,000 feet) between 50-60 degrees.  Winds will be light, 5-10 mph, and northerly in direction for elevations below 11,500 feet.  Winds at the upper elevations will increase slightly at 10-20 mph with occasional higher gusts, northerly in direction. 

Observations made yesterday from a ski tour to the top of Green Butte stayed consistent with other reports from backcountry enthusiasts who ventured up the hill.  Perfect, smooth corn was the snow du jour.  It's really what makes Mt. Shasta such a desirable ski objective.  The ski descent was started at 12:35 in the afternoon straight down the middle of Powder Bowl.  At this time of day the snow was that ideal consistency that allows for effortless turns top to bottom.  It should be noted, however, that the snow did start to get a little sticky below tree line.  No loose wet snow instabilities were witnessed, or created while skiing.  The possibility of any loose wet snow slides will only increase as the days warm up.  While not much of a hazard itself, loose wet snow slides could potentially knock a person off their feet and push them into undesirable terrain.  Normal caution is advised.

For folks that plan on climbing Mt. Shasta this weekend weather conditions will be perfect.  Route conditions on Casaval Ridge, Sargents Ridge, and Avalanche Gulch are ideal.  That being said, there are some objective hazards to be noted.  Snow surfaces will be firm and smooth in the early morning hours and will make for "slide for life" conditions.  Should one slip and fall and are unable to self-arrest, a long tumble is a possibility.  Ice fall from rime ice that still partially covers the Red Banks and other rock outcroppings is happening, even in the early morning hours.  A helmet, crampons, and a mountain axe are necessary equipment and should be used.

Photos below:
Top: Hanne Meyers on the Catwalk, Casaval Ridge on 3/5/2015 [Photo: Jon Dove]
Bottom: Shay Stem carving corn in Powder Bowl on 3/6/2015 [Photo: Jon Dove]

                                     

Castle Lake and Mt Eddy zones are still hosting a shallow snowpack. All areas below about 6,000 feet in the forecast area are hosting patchy snow with dirt showing around trees and in sunny spots.  For Castle Lake, skiing is out of the question at this point due to lack of snow.

Report your observations to the MSAC! A photo, a few words... send them in! (nimeyers@fs.fed.us or 530-926-9614)

Sand Flat Winter Trails: OPEN, trail conditions are firm and getting thin with some tree debris on snow surface. 

Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park: OPEN, however due to lack of low elevation snow, one must drive up the road several miles before enough snow is encountered. One CANNOT DRIVE over Military Pass. Snowmobiling is not recommended due to low snow depths.

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Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

Snowpack:  If snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include:  1) Recent/current avalanche activity  2) Whumpfing sounds or shooting cracks  3) Recent/current heavy snowfall  4) Strong winds transporting snow  5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.