Avalanche Advisory for 2016-12-04 07:07:44

The 2016/17 winter in Mt Shasta started wonderfully in October/November and has deposited a solid base of snow on the mountain, setting us up for a great winter. We've already had several good size storms and avalanches and if the early season is any indicator of what is to come, we should be in for a good show! The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows Northern California to host below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the next month. A chilly, white Christmas we hope.

Snow totals on the mountain range from 2-4 feet below and near treeline. One will find about 4-6 feet at upper elevations. West of I-5 in the Castle/Mt Eddy regions, snow totals are less but still in the 1-2 foot range, nothing to shake a stick at.

Our forecast area has received strictly wind and chilly temperatures over the past week. We saw an impressive and short lived rapid warming trend (10-20 degrees F) over the past 36 hours that did not result in any instability. All this is coming to an end today. While nothing to write home about, temperatures will plummet as the Day of the Lord progresses and we'll see increasing clouds hosting a blip of snow over Siskiyou County. The highest snow totals will remain north of us, the Crater Lake/Diamond Lake area. Mt Shasta should see an inch or two of snow with snow levels down to about 1,500 feet. Firm, wind sculpted snow with scoured ridgelines is again the soup de jour today for any backcountry skiers or riders. Any new snow we get will likely blow off the mountain due to the moderate to high west/northwest winds we receive. A few very isolated areas below and near treeline may host a small pocket of wind deposited snow. These areas are not expected to pose a life threat to backcountry users. 

Be cautious of smooth and firm snow on steep slopes. An ice axe, crampons and a helmet are absolutely necessary during conditions as such.

A long break in the snow action will end today. No need to get your powder boards out yet however as this storm is rather underwhelming. Cold air is dropping down from the north as we speak and will continue to drop temperatures in the area as the day progresses. Associated precipitation will begin to fall later in the day, only to the tune of a couple inches at best, more like maybe an inch or so. Near and above treeline may see a bit more snow in areas of wind drift. Overall, this storm will only bring just a slight refresh to the snowpack. It has been a windy week on the mountain and this fact will remain. West/Nothwest winds will continue to crank above treeline and on the upper mountain, likely keeping our scoured firm snowpack... scoured and firm! Any new snow probably won't stick to well, except below treeline and in some areas near treeline. One can expect the snow level to drop to about 1,500 feet by Monday, but by the time it does that, most of the precipitation will have alreay fallen. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the year thus far. A short break and another weak system will arrive Tuesday also. An additional and stronger system is expected later in the week. Cheers!

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In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 38 F, four degrees warmer than yesterday. Skies are mostly clear with calm wind.

On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 32 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 42 inches with with no new snow or precipitation and 1 inch settlement.  Temperatures have ranged from 32 F to 42F.

Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 39 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 35 F to 46 F.  Winds blew hard out of the northwest yesterday, averaging 30-40 mph with gusts to 71 mph up until about 1300. Winds calmed and shifted to easterly in nature, averaging 5-10 mph with a gust to 28 mph out of the WNW.

Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)... 

Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 35 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 30 F to 38 F. Snow on the ground totals 16 inches with no new snow and little settlement.

Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 37 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 30 F to 41 F. Snow on the ground measures 18 inches with no new snow and 1 inch settlement. Winds have been southerly in nature with an average of 2 mph, and a maximum gust of 15 mph, SSE.

THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 16.47 inches of water, normal is 8.03 inches, putting us at 205% of normal.  For the month of December we received 0.0 inches of water, normal is .67 inches, putting us at 0% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 49.37 inches of water, normal is 36.03 inches, putting us at 137% of normal.

Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.