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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-01-02 06:50:58
- EXPIRED ON January 3, 2018 @ 6:50 amPublished on January 2, 2018 @ 6:50 am
- Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLarge
Normal caution is advised. The icy, thin snowpack continues to create backcountry travel hazards. Steep terrain above treeline is challenging and dangerous. Arresting a fall in these conditions is difficult. Watch out for rocks. Low angle slopes with smooth ground cover offer the best skiing and riding.
- Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
- Don’t regroup in run-out zones.
- Avalanche rescue skills are essential when in avalanche terrain.
For several days, the advisory area has experienced clear and warm weather and LOW avalanche hazard. A re-cap of our season: October and November storms laid a shallow snowpack at high elevations on Mount Shasta. During Thanksgiving week, it rained up to 10,000ft. This rain event capped the snow surface with a crust at 7,000ft and above, and eliminated any snow below. We had two small storm events in December totaling 10 inches of snow and less than 1 inch of SWE. December 2017 was the second driest December in the past 107 years in Mount Shasta. High pressure has dominated our weather pattern. Precipitation is well below average, and a large portion of our advisory area is free of snow. Mount Shasta and Ash Creek Butte are the only areas with a rideable snowpack.
The thin snowpack throughout the advisory area is melting quickly. Over the past week, there has been a noticeable loss in snow height, especially in terrain 8,000ft and below on Mount Shasta. Coverage is sparse, but snowpack stability is very good. Rockfall and icefall were observed yesterday in Avalanche Gulch. Very little wind, warm temperatures, and direct sunlight allowed the snow surface to soften on southerly slopes. Surprisingly, there was consistent corn and pretty good skiing from 10,000ft all the way down to Bunny Flat.
Weather and Current Conditions
A high-pressure ridge remains in place over the western US. Low-level clouds and valley fog will erode by mid morning, and sunshine and clear skies are expected. Light southerly winds and high temperatures near 50 degrees will make for another unseasonably warm day. A change to an active weather pattern will occur late Wednesday and into the end of the week. A front will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday bringing warm air, strong southwest winds, and very light precipitation with snow levels between 7,500-8,500ft. A colder low-pressure system will follow on Thursday night and Friday morning. Precipitation should be greatest during this time period and snow levels will be dropping to 5,500ft. Precipitation is possible every day Wednesday through Saturday. Total accumulation of 1 inch of water (mix of rain and snow) is forecast by the end of the weekend.
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 5.83 inches of water, normal is 15.45 inches, putting us at 38% of normal. For the month of January, we have received 0 inches of water, normal is .24 inches, which is 0% of normal. And finally for the year of 2017, we received 0 inches of water, normal is .24 inches, putting us at 0% of normal.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM
|Weather Station||Temp (°F)||Wind (mph)||Snow (in)||Comments|
|Cur||Min||Max||Avg||Avg||Max Gust||Dir||Depth||New||Water Equivalent||Settlement|
|Mt. Shasta City (3540')||32||31||50||38||3||N|
|Sand Flat (6750')||42||32||47||39||14||0||0||0|
|Ski Bowl (7600')||41||36||46||41||18||0||0||0|
|Grey Butte (8000')||41||37||45||40||10||25||E|
|Castle Lake (5870')||43||42||50||45||8||0||0||0|
|Mount Eddy (6509')||38||35||47||40||2||5||WSW||10||0||0|
|Ash Creek Bowl (7250')||station down|
|Ash Creek Ridge (7895')||station down|
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
|For 7000 ft. to 9000 ft.|
|Weather||Mostly Cloudy||A 20% chance of light chance of showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy.||A 20% chance of rain. Mostly cloudy.|
|Temperatures||50 deg. F.||46 deg. F.||48 deg. F.|
|Wind speed||5-10 mph||5-10 mph||5-10 mph|
|Expected snowfall||0 in.||0 in.||0 in.|
|For 9000 ft. to 11000 ft.|
|Weather||Mostly Cloudy||A 20% chance of chance of showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy. Windy.||A 30% chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy. Windy.|
|Temperatures||33 deg. F.||30 deg. F.||28 deg. F.|
|Wind speed||10-15 mph, gusting 20 mph||20-30 mph, gusting 40 mph||20-25 mph, gusting 30 mph|
|Expected snowfall||0 in.||0 in.||0 in.|