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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-01-13 05:31:23

  • EXPIRED ON January 14, 2018 @ 5:31 am
    Published on January 13, 2018 @ 5:31 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
  • January 13, 2018 @ 5:31 am

    Advisory Hotline: (530) 926-9613

  • Triggering an avalanche is unlikely, and LOW avalanche danger exists at all elevations. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features. Shallow snowpack hazards are still problematic below treeline. Use extreme caution on steep slopes at upper elevations where firm snow surfaces are widespread. Falling rime ice will be a serious hazard today with warming temperatures.

  • Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Normal caution is advised:

  • Watch for isolated slabs.
  • Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
  • Don't regroup in run out zones
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are always essential when you travel in avalanche terrain.

Isolated slabs are generally related to wind and terrain: look for places where small areas of drifting have may have occurred and firm layers of surface snow overlie softer layers. Often this will occur on the lee side of ridges, in terrain depressions, on convex terrain features, and in the lee of isolated bands of trees.

Advisory Discussion

Today, falling RIME ICE will be our top concern. Temperatures are expected to warm upwards of 10 degrees F higher than previous days high temps with mild wind speeds. This will likely cause a maelstrom of rime ice to plummet down any slope below exposed, rime ice plastered rock features on Mount Shasta. Do not take this lightly. Rime ice can function just like a rock and cause serious injury or death, if large enough. Small, medium and large chunks are possible. We strongly advise wearing a helmet if you must go....but perhaps stay off suspect slopes altogether! 

Recent Observations

  • No recent avalanches or signs of instability, south side of Mount Shasta
  • Extremely variable
  • TONS of rime ice plastered to exposed rock formations, no exaggeration here. 
  • Slick/glazed snow surfaces near treeline, breakable crust mid elevations, some softening on select southeasterly slopes
  • Breezy near and above treeline, west/northwest
  • Thin snowpack with many hazards below treeline
  • Castle Lake has no snow, lake is not frozen
  • Eddy Mountains have very little snow, 6-12 in (15-30 cm) average depth near/above treeline, hard, supportable (One is able to drive with high clearance 4WD to Parks Creek Summit, 9.3 miles from Stewart Springs. Snow encountered at 7.0 miles.)
  • Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park is snowless, one can drive to at least Brewer Creek road on Military Pass, if not further with 4WD



 

 

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

High pressure takes the stand and will ring in the weekend with clear skies and dry weather. Patchy fog can be expected in the valleys. Winds are mellow and overall, there isn't much to mention weather-wise. All eyes are focused on next week, honestly. The aforementioned "parade of storms" is still on track. Storm precipitation amounts look to progressively increase over the course of the week, and snow levels will gradually lower. By next weekend, we should have significant snow in the hills. We usually don't like to put the cart before the horse, but can I get a hallelujah? 

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THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 7.81 inches of water, normal is 18.10 inches, putting us at 43% of normal. For the month of January and 2018, we have received 1.98 inches of water, normal is 2.89 inches, which is 68% of normal. 

Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mount Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mph) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540') 30 30 51 39 1 N
Sand Flat (6750') 32 27 37 31 11 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600') 40 22 43 35 24 0 0 0
Grey Butte (8000') 41 22 42 35 7 25 WNW
Castle Lake (5870') 43 30 43 37 0 0 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509') 37 27 43 38 2 7 WSW 0 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250') Station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895') Station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

For 7000 ft. to 9000 ft.
  Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
Weather Sunny Mostly Clear Sunny
Temperatures 52 deg. F. 40 deg. F. 53 deg. F.
Wind direction East East East
Wind speed 0-5 mph 0-5 mph 10-15 mph
Expected snowfall 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.
For 9000 ft. to 11000 ft.
  Saturday Saturday Night Sunday
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Sunny and windy
Temperatures 39 deg. F. 34 deg. F. 41 deg. F.
Wind direction Southeast Southeast South
Wind speed 5-10 mph 5-10 mph 15-25 mph
Expected snowfall 0 in. 0 in. 0 in.

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.