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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-02-11 07:01

  • EXPIRED ON February 12, 2018 @ 7:01 am
    Published on February 11, 2018 @ 7:01 am
  • Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations. Avalanches are unlikely and NORMAL CAUTION is advised. Shallow snowpack hazards exist. Falling rime ice continues to be a concern above 10,000 ft on Mount Shasta.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

NORMAL CAUTION means:

  • Watch for isolated slabs.
  • Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
  • Don't regroup in run out zones.
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are essential in avalanche terrain.

Isolated slabs are related to wind and terrain. Look for places where small areas of drifting have occurred and firm layers of surface snow overlie softer layers. This will occur on the lee side of ridges, in terrain depressions, on convex terrain features, and in the lee of isolated bands of trees

Forecast Discussion

Below freezing temperatures, strong NW winds, and a chance for light snow showers will make it feel more like winter. Today’s weak storm may only bring cloudy skies, but a trace amount of snow is possible over the next 24 hours. Snow surfaces should remain firm and frozen, and arresting a fall on a steep slope in these conditions would be difficult. Be sure to watch for rockfall and rime icefall in upper elevation terrain on Mount Shasta. LOW avalanche danger and normal caution will continue until a significant weather event occurs.

Recent Observations

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No avalanches or signs of instability have been observed or reported so far this month. The recent warm temperatures have melted a significant portion of alpine rime ice formations, but the rime ice is not gone yet and icefall continues. Variable snow surface conditions exist on Mount Shasta: rough wind eroded features, firm and icy snow, and supportable melt-freeze crusts. With good timing, corn snow can be found on E-SE-S-SW aspects. Castle Lake and the Mount Eddy area do not have enough snow for skiing and riding. There is hardly any snow below 6,000 ft in the Ash Creek Butte area, and above, coverage is thin.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

A cold front will bring breezy west/northwest winds and a chance for a trace amount of snow today and tonight. High temperatures for the day will reach the mid 30s to low 40s at 6,000 ft. Freezing levels will lower to 3,000 ft by this afternoon. High pressure will return tomorrow with clear and sunny skies expected.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 22 22 49 34.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 30 24 35 29 18 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 38.5 24 39 33 39 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 37 23.5 37 31.5 14 43 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 38 23.5 38 31 8 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 33.5 21.5 34.5 28.5 3 14 WSW 19 0 .5
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Sunday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Sunday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather 40% chance of snow showers between 10am and 4pm then mostly sunny. 30% chance of snow showers then partly cloudy. 20% chance of snow showers before 10am then mostly sunny.
Temperature (°F) 37 18 31
Wind (mi/hr) N/NE 10-15 mi/hr N/NW 10-15 mi/hr NE 5-10 mi/hr
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / trace / trace / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather 40% chance of snow showers between 10am and 4pm then partly sunny. Windy. Wind chill values as low as -7 degrees F. 30% chance of snow showers between 10pm and 4am. Partly cloudy with wind chill values as low as -18 degrees F. Windy with a 20% chance of snow showers before 10am. Then mostly sunny. Wind chill values as low as -16 degrees F.
Temperature (°F) 14 7 26
Wind (mi/hr) W/SW 30-40 mi/hr N/NW trace E/NE 20-30 mi/hr
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / trace / trace / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 10.11 24.46 41
Month to Date (since Apr 1, 2024) 0.00 2.19 0
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 4.28 9.25 46

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.