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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-04-01 06:39
- EXPIRED ON April 2, 2018 @ 6:39 amPublished on April 1, 2018 @ 6:39 am
- Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLarge
Generally safe avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry. LOW avalanche danger does not mean NO avalanche danger:
- Strong solar radiation and warm temperatures can cause loose wet avalanches. Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep sunlit slopes during the peak heating hours of the day.
- Small cornices exist on easterly aspects above treeline. They may weaken and fall as the warm and sunny spring weather continues. Avoid traveling on top of or below these formations.
- Watch for small isolated wind slabs where areas of drifting have occurred and firm layers of surface snow overlie softer layers.
Recently, conditions on Mount Shasta have been warm, sunny and beautiful. Snow surfaces are smooth and beginning to transition to corn, and climbing season has begun. Anything is possible in the spring, though. Warm sunny days can be immediately followed by winter-like conditions that present snow and avalanche danger, extreme wind, whiteout conditions and cold temperatures. The next 24-hours may be a good example how quickly the weather can change this time of year. An incoming cold front this afternoon will bring increasing clouds, strong and gusty north winds and limited visibility. Plan to be off the upper mountain before conditions change.
Yesterday, highs reached the 50s on Mount Shasta while temperatures in town hit 70 degrees. Steady NW winds blew above treeline averaging 10-15 mph with gusts to 35 mph. Between 7,000-10,000 ft on Mount Shasta, the height of snow ranges from 4-8 ft and overall, coverage is good. No avalanches or significant signs of instability have been observed in over a week. Snow surfaces remained firm above 10,000 ft on Mount Shasta, while below, a corn cycle has begun on southerly aspects. Snow surfaces are still transitioning to corn, but overall they are smooth and uniform. Unconsolidated, wet surface snow was found near and below treeline in the afternoon, and evidence of previous wet loose activity was widespread. The snowpack is melting quickly in the Pilgrim Creek Sno-Park, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy zones.
Weather and Current Conditions
Expect sunny skies this morning with increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid 50s at 6,000 ft. Strong north winds averaging 20-30 mph will blow above treeline. A cold front will move through the area in the afternoon bringing cloudy skies and continued north winds. Winds will reach a peak tonight on the upper mountain and then ease Monday morning.
24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM
|Weather Station||Temp (°F)||Wind (mi/hr)||Snow (in)||Comments|
|Cur||Min||Max||Avg||Avg||Max Gust||Dir||Depth||New||Water Equivalent||Settlement|
|Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft)||50||37||70||55||2||NW|
|Sand Flat (6750 ft)||station down|
|Ski Bowl (7600 ft)||32.5||32.5||51.5||42.5||77.5||0||0||2|
|Gray Butte (8000 ft)||35.5||35.5||47||41.5||14||35||NW|
|Castle Lake (5870 ft)||38||38||59||49||24.5||0||3|
|Mount Eddy (6509 ft)||35||32||53.5||41.5||2||10||WSW||42.5||3|
|Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft)||station down|
|Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft)||station down|
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
|For 7000 ft to 9000 ft|
|Weather||Sunny||Partly cloudy. 20% chance of rain and snow after midnight.||Partly sunny|
|Wind Speed (mi/hr)||0-5||10-15||5-10|
|Expected Snowfall (in)||0||0||0|
|For 9000 ft to 11000 ft|
|Weather||Sunny and windy||Partly cloudy. 20% chance of snow after midnight.||Partly sunny and windy|
|Wind Speed (mi/hr)||20-30||30-40||25-35|
|Expected Snowfall (in)||0||0||0|
Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City
|Period||Measured (in)||Normal (in)||Percent of Normal (%)|
|From Oct 1, 2017 (the wet season)||15.95||35.46||45|
|Month to Date (since Jun 1, 2018)||5.06||5.96||85|
|Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2018)||10.12||20.25||50|