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Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-10 07:05:23

  • EXPIRED ON March 11, 2013 @ 7:05 am
    Published on March 10, 2013 @ 7:05 am
  • Issued by Adam Teel - Mt. Shasta Avalanche Center

For today, the overall avalanche danger is LOW with pockets of   MODERATE in upper elevation wind loaded slopes with a North and Northeasterly aspect. The new snow has bonded well to the old snow and no avalanche activity has been observed or reported.

 

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab

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  • Size ?
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Avalanche Problem 2: Storm Slab

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    Certain
    Very Likely
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 It is unlikely that this sluff could bury someone but sluff managment may be necessary on steeper slopes. The upper elevation and sheltered Northerly slopes still had 'sluffy' high quality skiing as of yesterday.

Recent Observations

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The last couple days have been warm and calm which has settled out the new snow from last week without forming many threatening wind slabs. We have however developed a unpleasent breakable crust on any sun exposed slopes. No avalanche activity has been observed or reported and stability tests have had minimal results, there is no apparent deep instability in our current snowpack.

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    This week is shaping up to be calm winds and warm temps. We are expecting daytime high temps in the 50's at Bunny Flat and potentially 60's in town Monday-Wednesday then some cooling with our next disturbance. Some high pressure is moving over the area currently and the next chance of precip is Thursday afternoon and evening.

    WEATHER STATIONS - (last 24 hours):
    In Mt. Shasta City at 0500, we have clear skies and a current temperature of 28 F.
    On Mt. Shasta:  In the Old Ski Bowl (7,600') on the south side of Mt. Shasta, we have a current temperature of 29 F. Snow on the ground totals 112 inches with 2 inch of settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 21 F to 41F.  At Grey Butte (8,000') on the south side of Mt. Shasta winds averaged 7 mph from the E in the last 12 hours with a max gust of 21 mph from the E. The current temperature is 33 F and temps have ranged 22 F to 36 F.
    Castle/Mt. Eddy:   Castle Lake - Castle Lake is hosting a current temp of 31 F. In the last 24 hours temperatures have ranged from 25 F to 42 F. Snow depth measures 57" inches with 1 inche of settlement.  On Mt Eddy, we have 68 inches of snow on the ground. The current temperature reads 28 F with temps ranging from 24 F to 40 F. Winds have been averaging 3 mph from the SW and gusting to 15 mph from the SSE.

    THIS SEASON:  September and October were warm and dry with September recording exactly zero precipitation. November remained warmer than normal with precipitation almost double normal values, 9.16" vs. 5.08". A local weather COOP observed the 2nd wettest November on record. December started out wet and warm, but temperatures cooled and brought snow to very low elevations. Since our avalanche cycle near Christmas, we've had a few small storms that brought some amounts of snow to the area, but did not produced any notable avalanches. January was below normal for precipitation with a long period of high pressure and sun that kept skiing conditions somewhat meager. We've had a few storms in the past few weeks that have brought a pittance of wintery weather, but nothing to write home about!  The area has been under siege by high pressure overall and giving us blue bird days for the most part. California and the Sierra Nevada have recorded the driest January and February on record. We currently have 6-10 feet of snow above 6,500 ft. Since September 1st, Mt Shasta sits at 75% of normal, 24.37" recorded; normal 32.36". For 2013, we sit at 22% of normal with 3.67" recorded and 16.48" normal.

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    Weather Station Map
    Weather Station Table
    0600 temperature: 30
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 45
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: E
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 5 mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 21 mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
    Total snow depth: 74-112 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Sunday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)     		Sunday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)     		Monday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather Sunny Partly cloudy Mostly sunny
    Temperature (°F) 45 25 47
    Wind (mi/hr) NE 5-10 NE 5-10 N 5-10
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Sunday Sunday Night Monday
    Weather Sunny Partly cloudy Mostly sunny
    Temperature (°F) 34 20 36
    Wind (mi/hr) NE 10-15 NE 0 N 10-15
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.