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Avalanche Advisory for 2013-03-17 06:38:17
- EXPIRED ON March 18, 2013 @ 6:38 amPublished on March 17, 2013 @ 6:38 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
The avalanche danger for today is low for all aspects and elevations. Our current snowpack sits in a state of transition from the varying temperatures over the past week. Cooler days recently have decreased the chance of the loose-wet avalanche potential. Small wind slabs are isolated to the mid and upper elevations of the mountain and will be difficult to trigger. A few cornices in the Castle Lake area along Middle Peak are present and could become weak during the warm portions of the day. While conditions are overall stable, low avalanche danger means avalanches are still possible.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wet Slab
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Loose-wet avalanches will be unlikely today with the cooler temps. Loose-wet slides typically start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill. They generally are slow moving, but can contain enough mass to sweep a rider off their feet into terrain traps and/or undesireable locations.
Avalanche Problem 2: Wind Slab
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Very isolated areas hosting small wind slabs of little consequence could exist at mid and upper elevations on Mt. Shasta and the Mt. Eddy area. Wind slabs will likely be unreactive to trigger.
Avalanche Problem 3: Cornice
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Cornice failure could be possible along Middle Peak at Castle Lake and other isolated areas. Use caution when traveling along ridgetops where cornices are present. They can often break back much further than expected. Always be sure you have terra-firma underneath your feet!
Recent Observations
Overall, conditions are in transition and a wide variety of skiing conditions will be found out in the backcountry! Stability tests have produced no results. Cooler temps have locked up the snow and the chance of any wet-loose activity will be low.
Temperatures have cooled a few degrees more today. Yesterday, the snow was supportable and hosted decent skiing mid-day on southerly facing slopes above treeline on Mt. Shasta. Below treeline, soft, mushy glop was the name of the game. The snow is freezing at mid and upper elevations at night and making its transition into mature corn. North facing aspects could potentially host some "dryer" snow at mid/upper elevations, but these areas will be limited to only the most cold and shady north aspects. Northwest winds have been blowing in the past 24 hours with a gust to 92 mph at 0100 last night.
A great video from the Gallatin Avalanche Center, Bozeman, MT demonstrating a loose-wet slide: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWpRQzgtL3o&feature=share&list=PLXu5151nmAvT7gHqdNajDBGfGY4u5XMSL
Overall, no loose-wet avalanche activity has been seen or reported, except for the ob below reported on 3-14.
Local observation submitted yesterday, 3-14-13 from Castle Lake area: "Wet slide activity on northeast aspect, potential leg breaker, not burial depth however...Very warm, wet snowpack...not corn yet..."
3-14-13...
Old Ski Bowl, 8,500 feet, 1500, 48 F, East facing - Consolidated, 30cm of new snow on top of old snowpack; bottom 15cm of new snow completely saturated with water and loose/slushy. ECTN-15...no propagation but collapse within saturated, wet/loose bottom 15cm of new snow from last week.
Old Ski Bowl, 9,300 feet, 1530, North Facing - Dry snow, wind slab up to 50cm deep on top of old snowpack, CTN (No fracture)
North side Mt. Shasta, 7,500 - 8,000 feet, NE aspect, very limited roller ball / pin wheel activity isolated to near rock outcrops on steeper slopes.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
The weak storm that gave us clouds and just a few rain drops yesterday passes overhead and will proceed eastward. The next few days will host dry weather with gradually diminishing winds on the mountain. Today, lingering clouds and windy conditions will be the soup de jour for backcountry users.
A potential source for excitement, if your not already over winter, will be some weather arriving Tuesday afternoon / evening. While not a complete show stopper, this little storm has decent WSW flow with .5" to 1" of water associated with it. However, temps with this storm look warmer during its arrival. Temps will eventually cool, though it's likely most of the storm will have past by the time snow levels drop. That being said, we can expect 5"-8" of snow above 7,000 feet with this storm late Tuesday and Wednesday with southwest winds 35-45 mph near/above treeline. Snow levels will drop to near 4,000 ft with dwindling precip on Wednesday. Southwest winds will continue through the week and shift to northwest for Thursday.
WEATHER STATIONS - (last 24 hours):
In Mt. Shasta City at 0500, we have clear skies and a current temperature of 37 F.
On Mt. Shasta: In the Old Ski Bowl (7,600') on the south side of Mt. Shasta, we have a current temperature of 33 F. Snow on the ground totals 101" inches with 1" of settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 29F to 41F. At Grey Butte (8,000') on the south side of Mt. Shasta winds averaged 25 mph from the NW with a max gust of 92mph from the NW at 0100. The current temperature is 35 F and temps have ranged 28F to 39F.
Castle/Mt. Eddy: Castle Lake - Castle Lake is hosting a current temp of 27F. Temperatures have ranged from 29F to 51F. Snow depth measures 45" inches with little settlement. On Mt Eddy, we have 60" inches of snow on the ground with little settlement. The current temperature reads 30 F with temps ranging from 25F to 44F. Winds have been averaging 3 mph from yjr SE and gusting to 15 mph - SE.
THIS SEASON: September and October were warm and dry with September recording exactly zero precipitation. November remained warmer than normal with precipitation almost double normal values, 9.16" vs. 5.08". A local weather COOP observed the 2nd wettest November on record. December started out wet and warm, but temperatures cooled and brought snow to very low elevations. Since our avalanche cycle near Christmas, we've had a few small storms that brought some amounts of snow to the area, but did not produced any notable avalanches. January was below normal for precipitation with a long period of high pressure and sun that kept skiing conditions somewhat meager. We've had a few storms for 2013 that have brought us glimpses of wintery weather, but nothing to write home about! California and the Sierra Nevada have recorded the driest January and February on record. We currently have 5'-8.5' feet of snow above 6,500 ft. Since September 1st, Mt Shasta sits at 72% of normal, 24.37" recorded; normal 33.87". For 2013, we sit at 20% of normal with 3.67" recorded and 17.99" normal.
0600 temperature: | 32 |
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 44 |
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | NW |
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 25 mi/hr |
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 92 mi/hr |
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
Total snow depth: | 60-101 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
---|---|---|---|
Sunday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Sunday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Monday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
Weather | Clearing, mostly sunny, breezy | Mostly clear, breezy | Mostly sunny |
Temperature (°F) | 41 | 21 | 50 |
Wind (mi/hr) | NW 10-15 | NW 10-15 mph | NW becoming W 5-10 mph |
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
Sunday | Sunday Night | Monday | |
Weather | Mostly sunny | Mostly clear | Mostly sunny |
Temperature (°F) | 26 | 13 | 34 |
Wind (mi/hr) | NW 40-50 mph with gusts into the 70mph range, decreasing through the day | NW 0 | WNW 20-30 mph |
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |