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Avalanche Advisory for 2013-12-14 07:07:10
- EXPIRED ON December 15, 2013 @ 7:07 amPublished on December 14, 2013 @ 7:07 am
- Issued by -
Bottom Line
The tree is up, the lights are strung,
Are we having any fun?
Skis are sharpened, bases waxed,
But most are feeling mentally taxed.
Thinking, dreaming, dancing...
Praying for blessed snow to come,
So we can begin to shred our favorite run.
Skis, snowboard, snowmobile, snowshoe,
All have toys of choice...
So lets get together and do a dance for snow rejoice!
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossibleUnlikely
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Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
It is hardly worth mentioning...however the avalanche danger on any of the glaciers, I can say with certainty, is low. Skiing on Mt. Shasta's glaciers at this time is rough, icy and any new snow from the weeks past is likely gone. Any skiing on the glaciers would be above 10,000 feet and not for the faint of heart! Bon apetit!
Recent Observations
Mt. Shasta and mountinous areas west of I-5 look like giant heaps of salt and pepper... defined: salt = snow, pepper = rocks! Patchy snow up to 7 inches deep can be found above 6,500 feet. The Everitt Memorial Highway, past the locked gate at Bunny Flat, is covered in snow and would allow cross-country skiing for 3 miles up into the Old Ski Bowl parking lot. The Sand Flat winter trails are also covered in a small amount of snow and folks have been xc-skiing out there. The west side of the forecast area has less snow. I was able to drive all the way to Cedar Lake a few days ago and walked the remaining distance into Cliff Lake. Ice skating was good here, with a couple inches of light density snow on top of solid, smooth ice. Castle Lake is partially frozen and no skiing being had there currently. Warmer temperatures in recent days is shrinking our already meager snowpack... if you could even call it a snowpack! Waiting for snow...
Terrain: Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees. Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees. Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.
Weather: Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that! Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).
Snowpack: If snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees). Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall. Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.
Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes. Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time. Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center. Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe. Be an individual! Make your own decisions. Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have clear skies with an inversion in place. The current temperature of 27F.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, we have no new snow, with a snow depth total appoximately 7 inches. The current temperature is 41F with a high of 41F and a low of 25F.
Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 42F. Temps have ranged from 42F to 25F. Winds have average 5mph and southerly, switching to northwest a few hours before midnight. Gusts hit 14 mph from the northwest at various times.
Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of I-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 38F with a low of 30F and a high of 38F. No new snow has been recorded overnight.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 34F with a low of 27F and a high of 38F. Winds have been calm, 0-5 mph with gusts to 7 mph, southerly in nature.
THIS SEASON: Since September 1st, we have received 2.81 inches of water. Normal is 11.10 inches, putting us at 25% of normal. For the month of December, Mt Shasta has received .23 inches of water with normal being 3.07 inches, which is 7% of normal. For the year, Mt Shasta has received 9.99 inches of water, normal is 38.43 inches, putting us at 25% of normal for 2013.
WEATHER SYNOPSIS:
High and dry weather with sunny skies and high pressure over the area will finish off our weekend and host the start of next week. Valley fog, morning inversions and a bit of air stagnation may occur in low lying areas. Winds will be light and variable. The next chance at winter will occur with some northerly flow punching into the area Wednesday with snow levels below town, though precipitation amounts may be low if models hold true. As with most northerly flows, temperatures are cool with dryer air.
0600 temperature: | 40 |
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 41 |
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | Northwest |
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 5 mi/hr |
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 14 mi/hr |
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
Total snow depth: | 0-7 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
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Saturday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Saturday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Sunday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
Weather | Sunny | Mostly clear | Sunny |
Temperature (°F) | 48 | 34 | 51 |
Wind (mi/hr) | Variable light | East/Northeast 5-10 | Northeast, switching to Northwest in PM 5-10 |
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
Saturday | Saturday Night | Sunday | |
Weather | Sunny | Mostly clear | Sunny |
Temperature (°F) | 42 | 29 | 43 |
Wind (mi/hr) | North/Northwest 10-20 | Northwest 0 | West 15-25 |
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |