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Avalanche Advisory for 2014-12-06 06:55:28
- EXPIRED ON December 7, 2014 @ 6:55 amPublished on December 6, 2014 @ 6:55 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
Season's Greetings!
Low avalanche danger exists for all aspects and elevations as we begin to build our snowpack. Shallow buried objects such as rocks, stumps, brush and sticks will be the most notable hazards today. Thick, wet snow with shallow snow depths will make skiing challenging at lower elevations. Above 8,000 feet, 2 - 3 feet of smoother, more supportable snow exists, however visibility has been poor and observations are limited.
Take it easy and don't let early season excitement cause injury!
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossibleUnlikely
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Low avalanche danger and normal caution is advised for backcountry travelers.
Recent Observations
Happy Saturday All. Today commences the second advisory of the season and what a pleasure it is to have snow on the ground. Last year at this time I think we were greasing our bike chains, sharpening our ice skates and lacing our running shoes.
We saw some impressive rain totals in the area over the last 24 hours with several weather stations in the Mt Shasta area reporting over 1 inch of water. The Old Ski Bowl weather station recorded 2.31" of water! Unfortunately, snow levels were high and rain was present up to 8,300 feet on the mountain.... but you won't find me complaining. The precip is a welcome reprieve from seasons past. Visibility was poor on the mountain yesterday and kept folks from venturing to higher ground. Skiing from treeline and above was reported as smooth and supportable. Below treeline, conditions are knee twisting, breakable, mushy, rocky, woody and otherwise a little sketchy!
We have a little bit of everything within the snowpack currently. Rain crusts, dry layers and wet, saturated snow are forming our base. The upper elevation snowpack is likely building, however poor visibility has limited observations. Rain and mixed snow has plateaued snow depths near 26 inches at/near treeline. At Bunny Flat, snow depths sit at 6-8 inches. All that said, the warm temps, rain and wet snow are allowing for some nice "paste" for a good base this season. Stability tests have given no noteable results. Thick crusts, a shallow snowpack and rain have kept the snowpack stable.
Report your observations to the MSAC! A photo, a few words... send them in! (nimeyers@fs.fed.us or 530-926-9614)
Castle Lake area still has no snow.
Mt Eddy area is hosting about a 10" of snow with 2" settlement in the last 24 hours due to rain. I have not been up into that area yet and have received no reports.
It's early season and most know what that means... shallow buried objects and thick, wet snow. Both these factors together make risk for injury high! Take it easy and safe yourself for when the gettin' is good!
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Terrain: Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees. Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees. Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.
Weather: Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that! Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).
Snowpack: If snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees). Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall. Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.
Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes. Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time. Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center. Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe. Be an individual! Make your own decisions. Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumpfing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Top of the morning to you! In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have clear skies and a current temperature of 40 F.
WEATHER STATION INFORMATION:
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, we have a current temperature of 29 F. Snow on the ground totals 27 inches with 1-2 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. Temperatures have ranged from 28 F to 34 F.
Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, winds have averaged 20mph and Southeast in nature, with gusts to 42 mph out of the South. The current temperature is 28F and temps have ranged from 28 F to 33 F.
Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 33 F. Temps have ranged from 33 F to 39 F in the last 24 hours. Castle has no snow on the ground yet.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 33 F. Temps have ranged from 33 F to 37 F in the last 24 hours. Snow depth is measuring 10 inches with 1-2 inches settlement and no new snow with mostly rain in the last 24 hours. Winds have averaged 3 mph out of the Southwest with gusts to 15 mph, Southwest.
WEATHER SYNOPSIS: Mostly dry weather for the weekend with temperatures above normal. Any precipitation we receive this weekend will be minimal with snow levels high, near 8,000 feet. The next dollop of wet weather will move onshore Sunday afternoon. This will be the first of a series of weather waves that will move through the area. Next week will be wet and temperatures don't look to drop until late in the week. So, much of what we've been seeing will continue: precipitation with high snow levels. Of note over on the coast, 15-20 foot West swell expected for the Northern California coasts impacting docks and other seaside areas. Yikes!
Winds will subside a bit today and tomorrow. However, models show a windy week, picking up late Sunday night out of the Southwest for the 10,000 foot elevation. A gradual crescendo will play out with peak winds on or near Thursday, SW.
THIS SEASON: Since September 1st , we have received 12.45 inches of water, normal is 9.16 inches, putting us at 135% of normal. For the year of 2014, Mt Shasta has received 24.73 inches of water with normal being 36.49 inches which puts us at 67% of normal. And lastly, for December we sit at 283% of normal, receiving 3.20 inches of water, normal is 1.13 inches.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
0600 temperature: | 29 |
Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 34 |
Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | Southeast |
Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 20 mi/hr |
Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 42 mi/hr |
New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 1"-2" with rain inches |
Total snow depth: | 27" inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
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Saturday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Saturday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Sunday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
Weather | Chance of rain this morning, otherwise mostly clear | Partly cloudy | Rain beginning in the late afternoon |
Temperature (°F) | 40 | 33 | 42 |
Wind (mi/hr) | South 15-20mph, gusts to 35mph | South/Southeast 15mph with gusts to 25mph | South/Southeast 15-25mph |
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / .10" - .5" rain |
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
Saturday | Saturday Night | Sunday | |
Weather | Chance of snow showers in the AM, otherwise mostly clear | Partly cloudy | Snow beginning late afternoon |
Temperature (°F) | 33 | 29 | 34 |
Wind (mi/hr) | Southwest 25-35mph this morning, increasing this afternoon, 35-40mph | Southwest 0-.5" | South 25-35mph with gusts into the 40's/50's |
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0-.5" | / 0 | / 1"-3" |