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Avalanche Advisory for 2014-12-07 06:57:33

  • EXPIRED ON December 8, 2014 @ 6:57 am
    Published on December 7, 2014 @ 6:57 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

For elevations 6,900 ft to 8,500 feet, LOW avalanche danger exists for all aspects. Expect shallow buried objects and potentially challenging skiing conditions. 

Isolated pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger above 8,500 feet may be encountered. North/Northwest winds may have formed small wind loaded areas near ridgetops, bowls and extreme terrain on S-SE-E slopes. 

 

 

 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab

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Blowing snow from north/northwest winds yesterday was noted at mid and upper elevations. Small, isolated areas near ridgetops, bowls and extreme terrain could host small. shallow wind slabs on S-SE-E slopes. If triggered by a rider "dropping in", it could be enough to sweep one off their feet, but not likely enough snow to bury somebody.


 

Avalanche Problem 2: Normal Caution

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Recent Observations

At first look at the snow conditions from Bunny Flat, one might say, "Eww" or "Hmmm...". Need not to worry however. Keep the faith, stick your skins on, put your head down and enjoy the fresh air as you gain elevation onto the mid/upper slopes of Mt Shasta. It will be soon that one will find some rather wintery and enjoyable conditions as the 8,500 foot mark is reached. Above here, riding conditions have been good for early December!

Yesterday (12-6-14) the day opened with clear skies and what seemed like to be a gorgeous day on Shasta, however clouds and fog enveloped the mountain and brought poor visibility and light rain/snow to the mountain. It wasn't until later in the afternoon that the clouds parted and Shasta revealed its majesty!

The mountain thus is hosting a variety of conditions, all depending on elevation. From Bunny Flat (6,950 ft) to about 8,300 feet, conditions are marginal at best. One will find breakable crust and everything in between causing challenging sking at these lower elevations. Don't forget all the shallow buried objects such as rocks and woody material! Bunny Flat is hosting 6-12 inches of snow. At the 8,000 foot level, a solid 2-3 feet of snow has been recorded at multiple sites on the South side of the mountain. At 10,000 feet, a well consolidated 4-5 feet was recorded in the Old Ski Bowl and Avalanche Gulch.

Full snow data pits in the Old Ski Bowl resulted in nothing notable. Several extended column tests at 9,990 feet, southeast facing produced no collapsing, shear and/or propagation. A local observer also had the same lack of results in Avalanche Gulch at the same elevation. Snow depth totals at the Old Ski Bowl site was 145cm. At the Avalanche Gulch site, 120cm.

Some blowing snow was noted at mid and upper elevations. Winds were moderate out of the North/Northwest, thus loading South, Southeast and Easterly slopes.

Conditions report video: http://youtu.be/EcxRimiu3JY


Avalanche Gulch from Lake Helen on 12-6-14 Photo: Chris Carr


Old Ski Bowl on 12-6-14  Photo: Nick Meyers via Snapseed App

Report your observations to the MSAC! A photo, a few words... send them in! (nimeyers@fs.fed.us or 530-926-9614)

Castle Lake area still has no snow.

Mt Eddy area is hosting about a 10" of snow. I have not been up into that area yet and have received no reports.

It's early season and most know what that means... shallow buried objects and thick, wet snow. Both these factors together make risk for injury high! Take it easy and safe yourself for when the gettin' is good!   

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Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

SnowpackIf snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include:  1) Recent/current avalanche activity  2) Whumpfing sounds or shooting cracks  3) Recent/current heavy snowfall  4) Strong winds transporting snow  5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.

 


 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have mostly clear skies and a current temperature of 42 F.

    WEATHER STATION INFORMATION:

    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, we have a current temperature of 30 F. Snow on the ground totals 27 inches with zero settlement and no new snow in the last 24 hours. Temperatures have ranged from 27 F to 33 F.

    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, winds have averaged 12mph and Westerly in nature, with gusts to 42 mph from the West/Northwest. The current temperature is 30F and temps have ranged from 26 F to 31 F.  

    Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of Interstate-5)... 

    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 35 F. Temps have ranged from 33 F to 37 F in the last 24 hours. Castle has no snow on the ground yet.

    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 33 F. Temps have ranged from 30 F to 35 F in the last 24 hours. Snow depth is measuring 10 inches with no settlement and no new snow in the last 24 hours. Winds have averaged 2 mph out of the South with gusts to 12 mph, East/Southeast.

    WEATHER SYNOPSIS:  The next wave of wet weather is arrriving on shore and will impact the areas late today. We should see rain and higher elevation snow showers through Monday. A short break Tuesday will follow. Wednesday and Thursday looks to bring some significant precipitation and colder temperatures, lowering snow levels potentially to town.

    Wind on the mountain will persist for most of the week. Expect southwest flow and winds to peak mid to late in the work week.

    THIS SEASON: Since September 1st , we have received 12.45 inches of water, normal is 9.4 inches, putting us at 132% of normal. For the year of 2014, Mt Shasta has received 24.73 inches of water with normal being 36.73 inches which puts us at 67% of normal. And lastly, for December we sit at 233% of normal, receiving 3.20 inches of water, normal is 1.37 inches.

    Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 30
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 33
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: West
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 12 mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 42 mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
    Total snow depth: 27" inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Sunday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Sunday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Monday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather Rain and snow beginning late afternoon Rain and snow Mostly cloudy, slight chance of rain
    Temperature (°F) 46 33 44
    Wind (mi/hr) South/Southeast 15-25 mph with gusts to near 40 mph South/Southeast 15-25mph South 15-25mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0-.5 / 0-.5 / 0
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Sunday Sunday Night Monday
    Weather Partly Sunny, snow beginning late in the day Snow likely, mostly cloudy Mostly cloudy, chance of snow
    Temperature (°F) 37 21 36
    Wind (mi/hr) South/Southwest 25-35 mph Southwest 0-.5 West/Southwest 20-25mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0-.5 / 1"-2" / 0-.5"

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.