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Avalanche Advisory for 2015-01-23 07:10:31

  • EXPIRED ON January 24, 2015 @ 7:10 am
    Published on January 23, 2015 @ 7:10 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

 The avalanche danger is LOW for all aspects and elevations on Mt Shasta. 

Rising night and daytime temperatures could create wet/loose snow instabilites. Warm, E-SE-S facing slopes up to 10,000 feet could see roller balls, pinwheels and small surface sluffs on slopes > 35 degrees.

Other hazards include smooth and icy conditions on the upper mountain creating slide for life potential if self arrest skills are not implemented quickly. A helmet, crampons and ice axe are recommended. Watch for icefall.

 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Wet Slab

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Wet/loose snow instabilities will host our avalanche problem for this weekend. Rising night and daytime temperatures and freezing levels over 11,000 feet could create wet/loose snow instabilities in the form of roller balls, pinwheels and small surface sluffs.

 

Slopes steeper than 35 degrees and E-SE-S facing up to 10,000 feet will be the most likely areas to encounter the said avalanche problem. 

 

While these types of slides are usually of little consequence, they always have the chance to build as they move down a slope and potentially sweep a rider off their feet and into undesireable locations.

 

Conditions may be affected by sun, rain and warm tempertures. Timing before the onset of significant sun/warmth is key.

Avalanche Problem 2: Normal Caution

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Recent Observations

After a brief respite from the sun last weekend with a little bit of snow and rain, "Junuary" like conditions return as the high pressure ridge rebuilds blocking any possibility of preciptation in our immediate future.  The plus side is that last weekends snow and rain smoothed out what was previously a mostly textured and uneven snow surface.  When combined with sunshine and the steadily increasing temperatures during the week, we have been graced with a melt/freeze cycle producing great corn snow at elevations below 10,000 feet.  This has been making for some great riding for backcountry skiers and snowboarders, snowmobilers, snow shoers, and sledders.  As the temperatures continue to warm, good corn conditions will push higher in elevation.  

Wind slabs that developed last weekend from new snow being transported about have begun to heal themselves and are becoming less of a concern. There was mention of the weak layer within wind slabs and this layer has mended and gone away.  Observations made during the week in the snow pack produced no notable results indicating any instabilities below 11,000 feet.  Folks who ventured up into Giddy-Giddy Gulch, 50/50 Flat, and Shastarama reported smooth snow and good corn skiing/snowmobiling at and below 9,700 feet.  On the upper mountain smooth and firm snow surface conditions still present the possibility for "slide for life" incidents, so bring your crampons, helmet, and mountain axe.  Rock, and ice fall were observed during warm afternoon temperatures below Shastarama. No instabilities have been observed or recorded on the upper mountain also.

One observation over the week noted a 1-2cm water ice layer within the upper layers of the snowpack on the upper mountain, 11,000 to 12,000 feet. This layer was likely from our extremely warm rain/misting event of last Saturday.

Up and coming concerns for today and this weekend are the chance of wet/loose snow instabilities in the form of roller balls, pinwheels and small wet surface sluffs as low and high temps increase. These instabilities will likely be small in size and of little consequence, but as always, use caution on steeper slopes in extreme terrain where even a small slide could sweep one off their feet into undesireable locations!

Below, top to bottom: Skier on Green Butte Ridge from past week, Avalanche Gulch in background - Photo: Shane Rathbun / Wind and Lake Helen from this past week - Photo: S Rathbun / Looking up at Shastarama, Old Ski Bowl, Mt Shasta, approx. 9,700 feet, 1.22.15 - Photo: Jon Dove / Looking out into Old Ski Bowl, 9,300 feet, 1.22.15 - Photo: J Dove

DON'T FORGET! THE SHASTA ASCENSION RANDONEE RACE IS TOMORROW AND THE LOCATION HAS BEEN CHANGED TO THE BUNNY FLAT TRAILHEAD DUE TO LACK OF SNOW AT THE SKI PARK. Registration is from 0700-0930 and the race begins at 1000. FOLLOWING the race in the evening is the 13th Annual SNOW BALL PARTY at the Mt Shasta City Park. This is the MSAC's biggest fundraiser of the year...come out and have an amazing time and help support everything you love about this advisory and website! Details under "Events" tab on this website. See you soon!

Report your observations to the MSAC! A photo, a few words... send them in! (nimeyers@fs.fed.us or 530-926-9614)

Castle Lake area has a shallow snowpack. Be careful of shallow buried objects. Skiing has been reported as poor to non-existent.

Sand Flat Winter Trails: OPEN

Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park: OPEN, however due to lack of low elevation snow, one must drive up the road several miles before enough snow is encountered. One CANNOT DRIVE over Military Pass.

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Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

SnowpackIf snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include:  1) Recent/current avalanche activity  2) Whumpfing sounds or shooting cracks  3) Recent/current heavy snowfall  4) Strong winds transporting snow  5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.

 


 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    In Mt Shasta City this morning at 0500, we have a current temperature of 39 degrees with mostly clear skies.

    WEATHER STATION INFORMATION (0500hrs):

    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 35 F. Snow on the ground totals 68 inches with 1 inch settlement since last Sunday. The Old Ski Bowl weather station has no new snow over the past week. Temperatures have ranged from 32 F to 45 F. 

    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, winds have averaged 9 mph and variable in direction, with a max gust to 28 mph from the ENE. The current temperature is 35 F and temps have ranged from 32 F to 44 F in the last 24 hours.  

    Castle Lake and Mt Eddy (West side of Interstate-5)... 

    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 38 F. Temps have ranged from 36 F to 49 F in the last 24 hours. The Castle Lake area has up to 1.5 feet of snow on the ground and no new snow over the past week.

    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 35 F. Temps have ranged from 34 F to 45 F in the last 24 hours. Current snow depth is 19 inches with no new snow over the past week and little settlement. Winds have averaged 2 mph and WSW in direction, with gusts to 10 mph from the SW.

    WEATHER SYNOPSIS: We will be at the southern edge of a warm front moving into the Pacific NW as that stuborn high pressure ridge rebuilds.  It will be stronger than the the ridge from earlier in the week meaning steadily increasing temperatures through the weekend reaching its peak on Monday.  A few scattered clouds will linger today into Saturday morning, but will burn off leaving clear skys for the majority of the weekend. Expect temperatures near treeline to be in the mid 50's through the weekend with light ENE winds 0-5 mph. Inversions and air stagnation/valley fog will also return.

    THIS SEASON: Since October 1st (the wet season) , we have received 20.00 inches of water, normal is 20.35 inches, putting us at 98% of normal. For January/2015, we've received 0.48 inches of water, normal is 5.14, putting us at 9% of normal.  

    Looking back into 2014, Mt Shasta finished off with 34.36 inches of water with normal being 43.21 inches, leaving us at 79% of normal for the year. For the month of December, Mt Shasta finished at 163% of normal, receiving 12.83 inches of water, normal is 7.85 inches. 

    Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 32
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 35
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: Variable
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: 9 mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: 28 mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
    Total snow depth: 68 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Friday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Friday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Saturday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather Mostly sunny Partly cloudy Sunny
    Temperature (°F) 48 35 56
    Wind (mi/hr) North/Northeast Calm North 0-5 mph North 0-5 mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Friday Friday Night Saturday
    Weather Mostly sunny Partly cloudy Sunny
    Temperature (°F) 47 36 54
    Wind (mi/hr) Northwest Light, 5-10mph North 0 North/Northwest 10-15 mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.