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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-01-02 06:23:14
- EXPIRED ON January 3, 2016 @ 6:23 amPublished on January 2, 2016 @ 6:23 am
- Issued by Jon Dove - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
Overall, LOW avalanche danger will exist on all aspects and elevations today.
While avalanches remain unlikely, some unstable snow could exist on isolated steep terrain features. Any remaining wind slabs are NOT expected to present a significant hazard if safe backcountry travel techniques are used to help minimize risk. Normal caution is advised.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
Wind slabs do exist in areas above treeline, but evidence found both yesterday and Friday indicated continued bonding of wind deposit snow with old snow underneath. Some cornices still linger over previously wind loaded slopes. Be sure to give them plenty of room as there was evidence two days ago of cornice failure in Powder Bowl. Continue to practice normal caution and safe travel techniques when enjoying the mostly sunny weather out in the backcountry today.
"Normal Caution" refers to safe travel practices that should be exercised during every tour, which include:
-Expose only one person at a time to avalanche terrain, both skinning up AND riding down.
-Avoid areas with possibly unstable snow.
-Travel from one safe zone to another crossing avalanche paths one at a time, and avoiding terrain traps. Is your "safe zone" really safe if a slide were to occur?
-Communicate clearly and often with your travel partners. Don't be afraid to speak up if you notice poor decision making or any "red flags".
Forecast Discussion
The record dry air mass persists today with continued cold temperatures and mostly clear skies for today. Some high clouds will begin to edge in from the south with an increasing chance of some light precipitation tonight into early Sunday with models predicting a scant 0.07 inches of water. Temperatures will begin to rise on Sunday and any precipitation will decrease. A slight chance of precip remains on Sunday night into Monday morning with a more significant trough arriving Monday into Tuesday morning. To quote NOAA meteorologists "...this (trough) favors moderate to heavy precipitation in Northern California...especially around Mount Shasta City." Current model predictions call for 0.95 inches of water with the Monday/Tuesday weather system which translates into 8-10 inches of snow. Snow levels for this storm system will be in the area of 3,500-4,500 ft., so there is a chance for more snow down to Mount Shasta City limits! Wet weather is forecast through the end of the work week.
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 9.49 inches of water, normal is 15.54 inches, putting us at 61% of normal. For the month of January, we have received 0.00 inches of water, normal is 0.24 inches, putting us at 0% of normal. For the year of 2016 we've received 0.00 inches of water, normal is 0.24 inches, putting us at 0% of normal
Recent Observations
Not much changed out in the backcountry yesterday. Chilly temperatures and light Easterly winds helped to kept snow soft at elevations near and below treeline. Variable conditions exist above treeline with generally good skiing/riding conditions on soft wind buffed to chalky carveable snow. There were no signs of instability in areas of wind deposited snow, and no reports of avalanche activity from elsewhere in the forecast area. Clear and cold weather for today will help keep the status quo in terms of snow conditions, which has been a blessing with this short dry spell. Increasing clouds and slightly warming temperatures will usher in a more progressive weather pattern beginning tonight into Sunday. It won't be until Monday that we begin to receive significant precipitation amounts which will introduce new avalanche problems of storm slab, and possibly wind slab development. For today avalanche danger will remain low in all portions of the forecast area.
That being said , there is still potential to find the right mix of conditions in steep, complex terrain above treeline and below ridge tops in non-typical starting zones where a small wind slab avalanche could be triggered. Normal caution is advised. Safe travel techniques should be followed. Only expose one person at a time to avalanche terrain, regroup in "safe" spots out of avalanche paths, avoid terrain traps, and have open communication with in your group. LOW avalanche danger is not the green light for complacency. Unstable snow on isolated terrain features could still result in an avalanche that could injure, bury, or kill someone.
Quick Pit Profile from the base of Sargents Ridge 12-31-2015 by Jon Dove:
Harrison skinning up toward Shastarama 12/31/2015-photo: Jon Dove
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The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in great shape and ready for your cross country skis or snow shoes. These are backcountry trails marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park is open! Trails are being groomed currently. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status and other sledder resources!
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumpfing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 21 F, eleven degrees warmer than yesterday at this time, with overcast skies and calm wind 0-5 mph.
MOUNTAIN WEATHER STATION INFORMATION (0500hrs):
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 12 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 53 inches with 2 inches of settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 12 F to 21 F.
Grey Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 11 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 11 F to 18 F. Winds have been averaging 21 mph and Easterly in direction, with a max gust to 56 mph out of the E.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 16 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 12 F to 19 F. Snow on the ground measures 29 inches with 1 inch settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 16 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 10 F to 18 F. Snow on the ground measures 44 inches with no new snow and 1 inch of settlement. Winds have averaged 2 mph SW in direction, with a max gust to 10 mph, WSW.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 18 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 25 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | Easterly |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 21 mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 56 mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 53 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Saturday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Saturday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Sunday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Mostly sunny. | Mostly cloudy. 50% chance of snow. | Mostly cloudy. 50% chance of snow. Breezy |
| Temperature (°F) | 25 | 20 | 30 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | South/southeast 15-20 mph | South/southeast 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph | Southeast 15-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0-1 | / 0-0.5 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Saturday | Saturday Night | Sunday | |
| Weather | Mostly sunny. Windy with wind chill values as low as -8 | Mostly cloudy. 50% chance of snow. Windy with wind chill values as low as -9. | Mostly cloudy. 40% chance of snow. Windy with wind chill values as low as -2. |
| Temperature (°F) | 14 | 14 | 22 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Southwest 25-30 mph with gusts to 40+ mph | South/southwest 0 | South 30-35 mph increasing to 40-45 mph with higher gusts |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0-1 | / 0-1 |
