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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-02-25 06:43:12
- EXPIRED ON February 26, 2016 @ 6:43 amPublished on February 25, 2016 @ 6:43 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
Overall, the avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects and normal caution is advised.
Human triggered wet sluffs are possible when riding or traveling through steep, sunlit aspects if and when the snow becomes wet and unsupportable below, near and slightly above treeline.
Small, minor wind pockets and loose sloughs should only pose a problem in extreme terrain above treeline
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
Overall LOW avalanche danger exists across the forecast area. You need to remember that risk is ALWAYS present in mountain travel. Even with LOW danger, avalanches can still happen in isolated places.
Some current considerations:
- Lingering, stubborn wind drifts may be encountered on the upper mountain. After our storm from last week, northerly winds cranked on the upper mountain. If climbing, small wind pockets may linger. The consequences are low, burial is unlikely, but if on a steep slope with a long fetch that may take you over a cliff or into rocks...you get it.
- Loose wet instability hazard is always low in the morning but can become moderate to considerable in the warm afternoon hours, especially after poor overnight re-freeze. Today is expected to be one of the warmest days of the week. We havn't seen any major activity yet this year, however roller balls and pin wheels are a good sign that the snow is loosing strength and larger slides are possible. Mt Shasta has slopes with long fetch and this allows loose wet slides to gain a good bit of momentum and snow. Throw in a terrain trap or two and burial is likely. These larger loose wet slides will become more of a problem as we move into Spring. Today, most likely inconsequential roller balls at best.
- Cornices, some very large, have been observed in the area backcountry. While none have been able to trigger, the old elevator drop is always certain to get your heart pumping and can send you for a ride...not magic mountain style. Simply, stay back on terra firma by noting rocks or trees protruding from the landscape.
Forecast Discussion
The Mt Shasta winter season has been in the doldrums for a good part of February. Another beautiful day today, though we should see some clouds start to filter in and prep us for a quick shot of rain and snow on Friday night. We are going to see winds begin to gradually increase out of the south/southwest and temperatures will start to cool tomorrow. Rain is forecast to begin in the afternoon/evening on Friday and give us a quick shot overnight. Snow levels can be expected high at first, 8,500 feet and lowering to near 6,000 feet by Saturday morning. While a small storm, it will provide a nice re-fresh for the snowpack...several inches perhaps in the high country. Today is looking to be quite nice... another day where the biggest decision will be what activity to choose!
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 25.36 inches of water, normal is 28.42 inches, putting us at 89% of normal. For the month of February we've received 2.87 inches of water, normal is 6.15 inches, putting us at 46% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 15.87 inches of water, normal is 13.21 inches, putting us at 120% of normal .
Recent Observations
Several days of clear blue skies has consolidated the snowpack several inches in some areas. A variety of snow surface conditions will be found, pending your aspect and elevation. Overall, good riding conditions can be found throughout the different types of snow. Loose wet instabilities have been minimal even with the warmer temperatures and poor overnight freeze. Clear skies have allowed for good radiational cooling in open areas and even just a little bit of wind can keep the snow firm enough to stay put. Protected, sunny slopes below and near treeline will be the best places for roller balls, etc. but consequences low. Upper elevation, small wind pockets are possible, but also low consequence for most. Good stabililty over the entire forecast area is what we've got, so go get it!
West side of the forecast area, Castle Crags area, 2.24.26 - Photo: C. Carr, Shasta Mountain Guides
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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:
The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes. These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is open! These beautiful, groomed trails can be accessed via the Ski Park Highway. http://www.mtshastanordic.org
The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open! Trails have not been groomed in the past week and a half due to warm temperatures. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.
The Castle Lake Road is plowed to the lake. The Everett Memorial Highway is plowed to Bunny Flat.
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 31 F, one degree warmer than yesterday at this time, with mostly clear skies and calm wind.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 34 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 119 inches with no new snow and 4 inches of settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 32 F to 45 F.
Grey Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 35 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 35 F to 44 F. Winds have averaged 10 mph primarily out of the west/northwest with a max gust to 21 mph, west/northwest.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 38 degrees. Temperatures have ranged from 36 F to 57 F. Snow on the ground totals 69 inches with no new snow and little settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 34 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 31 F to 45 F. Snow on the ground measures 79 inches with no new snow and .5 inches of settlement. Winds have averaged 2-4 mph, west/southwest in direction with a max gust of 9 mph, out of the east.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 33 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 49 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | West/Northwest |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 5-10 mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 21 (Gray Butte) mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 87 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Thursday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Thursday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Friday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Mostly sunny, becoming partly cloudy | Mostly clear | Rain, mainly after 4pm |
| Temperature (°F) | 52 | 35 | 46 and falling |
| Wind (mi/hr) | South 10-15 mph | Southeast 10-15 mph | South 15-20 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / .10 - .25 water |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Thursday | Thursday Night | Friday | |
| Weather | Mostly sunny | Mostly clear, breezy | Snow, mainly after 4pm, windy |
| Temperature (°F) | 36 | 36 | 33 and falling |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Southwest 10-20 mph | Southwest 0 | Southwest 30-40 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 1-2 |
