You are here
Avalanche Advisory for 2016-03-02 06:45:12
- EXPIRED ON March 3, 2016 @ 6:45 amPublished on March 2, 2016 @ 6:45 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
Overall, LOW avalanche danger will persist across the forecast area for all elevations and aspects. Snow instabilities will be few and far between. During the day, light rain is likely near and below treeline, but is not expected to affect the avalanche danger. A trace of snow is expected above treeline.
Normal caution is advised and safe travel techniques should be practiced.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
-
Character ?
-
Aspect/Elevation ?
-
Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
Normal caution will continue for today. The only chance for snow instabilities will be isolated wind slabs near/above treeline which will be hard to find and stubborn to trigger. Wind slab formations are widely spaced with poor uniformity and pose little threat. Triggering anything of size and consequence is slim to none. Increasing clouds, strong wind, and relatively cool temperatures will prevent any loose wet snow instabilities. It is always a smart idea to continue to practice safe travel techniques for backcountry travel even when that avalanche danger is low.
Forecast Discussion
A warm front followed by a cold front will move toward the area today. Increasing clouds and windy conditions with a tad bit of precip will kick off March and what sounds like a wet one. This first storm doesn't look all that impressive but it will mark the opening of the doors for a supposed stampede of storms that will add snow to the hills and host inches of water this weekend and into next week. As we've seen before, all this will start with warm temperatures which means high snow levels at first, near 7-8,000 feet. By Sunday, snow levels should be down to near 4-5,000 feet. The remainder of the week will be a great time for finishing up some work projects, waxing skis and strategically planning your sick day next week!
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 25.62 inches of water, normal is 29.76 inches, putting us at 86% of normal. For the month of March we've received .10 inches of water, normal is .26 inches, putting us at 38% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 16.13 inches of water, normal is 14.55 inches, putting us at 110% of normal .
Recent Observations
Observations from the field are limited to what our weather stations have to say about the past 24 hours. Temperatures have cooled with overnight lows near treeline dipping to below freezing. Our bomber snowpack will show little signs of instability throughout the forecast area. The scattered "scabs" of wind buffed and sculpted snow will still be found above treeline interspersed amongst an otherwise firm and sometimes icy snow surface. Increasing clouds with the approaching front will bring rain to near and below treeline with trace amounts of snow above treeline. This weather system is not expected to change the avalanche danger today. Strong winds will prevent any significant snow accumulation. Thin, isolated wind slabs small in size may develop but will not pose a problem to backcountry travelers. Decreasing visibility and the power of the wind will prevent folks from venturing too high above treeline anyway.
Aerial photo of Mt Shasta taken late February, 2016 by Jimmy Williams with his son Billy as pilot. Thanks for sharing you guys!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:
The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes. These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is open! These beautiful, groomed trails can be accessed via the Ski Park Highway. http://www.mtshastanordic.org
The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open! Trails have not been groomed in the past week and a half due to warm temperatures. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.
The Castle Lake Road is plowed to the lake. The Everett Memorial Highway is plowed to Bunny Flat.
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 37 F, nine degrees cooler than yesterday at this time! Skies are overcast with calm wind.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 23 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 117 inches with one inch new snow and little settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 22 F to 39 F.
Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 26 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 26 F to 32 F. Winds have averaged 15 mph with a max gust to 35 mph, southwest.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 34 degrees. Temperatures have ranged from 33 F to 45 F. Snow on the ground totals 63 inches with no new snow and little settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 32 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 29 F to 40 F. Snow on the ground measures 77 inches with one inch new snow and no settlement. Winds have averaged 2-3 mph with a max gust of 19 mph, south/southeast.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 31 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 34 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | Southwest |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 15-20 mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 35 (Gray Butte) mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0-1 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 81 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Wednesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Wednesday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Thursday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | A 20 percent chance of rain after 10am. Increasing clouds, with a temperature rising to near 45 by 10am, then falling to around 37 during the remainder of the day. Breezy | Rain before 4am, then rain and snow showers likely. Low around 31. Breezy | Rain and snow showers likely, mainly before 10am. Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Breezy |
| Temperature (°F) | 45 and falling | 31 | 40 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | South 10-15 mph with gusts higher | South 10-15 mph with gusts higher | South 10-15 mph with gusts higher |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0-.5 | / 0-1 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Wednesday | Wednesday Night | Thursday | |
| Weather | Increasing clouds, with a high near 33. Windy | Snow. Windy. Wind chill values as low as -2. | Snow showers likely, mainly before 10am. Partly sunny, Windy, Wind chill values as low as -2. |
| Temperature (°F) | 33 | 21 | 21 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Southwest 30-40 mph | Southwest 0 | Southwest 30-40 mph with gusts to 50+ |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 2-4 | / .5-1 |
