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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-04-10 06:30:14

  • EXPIRED ON April 11, 2016 @ 6:30 am
    Published on April 10, 2016 @ 6:30 am
  • Issued by Jon Dove - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

LOW avalanche danger exists for all elevations and aspects. Pockets of MODERATE danger may exist above treeline at 10,000 feet and up where new snow associated with yesterday's thunderstorms may have developed wind slabs.  Due to lack of observations at those elevations the size, distribution, and sensitivity of wind slabs to trigger is not known. Loose wet snow instabilities, though unlikely, may be found near and below treeline slopes 37 degrees and steeper. 

 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
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  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
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    Very Large
    Large
    Small

It is a bit of a challenge to predict what today's avalanche problem is. We had continued poor overnight refreeze conditions with night time lows remaining above freezing below 9,500-10,000 feet keeping the snow soft.  That being said, today's cloud cover and the potential for scattered thunder showers will limit loose wet instabilities.  The other thing to consider is that precipitation associated with yesterday's evening storms fell as snow above 10,000 feet and may have blown around developing new wind slab formations.  Since no observations are available for the upper mountain the size, distribution and sensitivity to trigger of any wind slab formations are unknown.  If they do exist it could be on multiple aspects due to the variable wind directions.  Poor visibility and the specter of more thunderstorm activity will prevent anyone from venturing up on to the upper portions of the mountain today, which is probably a good thing.  Continue to use good travel judgment when planning your back country tour today. Consider the potential avalanche problems discussed above as you make your way up the mountain. Slopes 37 degrees and steeper primarily on south to southeast aspects will be most likely to host any loose wet snow instabilities. Wind slabs will not be found until one ascends to the mid to upper mountain levels.     

It's beginning to be that time of year when the mountain can become quite crowded with other climbers/skiers within your sphere of influence. So, not only should you be concerned about triggering a loose wet slide that you or your group is involved in, you need to pay attention to where other groups are located. Are you above or below another group? Could you trigger a slide on top of somebody or is another skier going to trigger something on top of you? We are talking situational awareness here. Keep yours on high.

Forecast Discussion

The majority of the day yesterday was dominated by sunshine and continued mild temperatures, albeit a few degrees cooler than the previous day.  By late afternoon to early evening scattered large thunder cells had managed to build.  They created a beautiful sight at twilight with the towering dark gray thunder cells unleashing flashes of lightning while the setting sun painted the edges of the clouds with orange and peach alpenglow.  We received 0.23 inches of water in Mt. Shasta City from passing thunder showers with more or less precipitation amounts at other locations within the forecast area depending on where thunderstorms tracked.  Snow levels on and around Mt. Shasta hovered somewhere around 10,000 feet by the time the thunderstorms began to wring moisture from their dark folds.  For today more precipitation is once again on tap with up to 0.20 inches of water possible by late afternoon.  This precipitation will most likely be associated with thunder cells that are predicted to form by mid-day. Winds are forecast to be generally light for all elevations for today and tomorrow.  Gusty winds are possible directly under and around any thunder cells that may develop.  Temperatures look to stay the same for today as they were yesterday, and will continue at the same levels through Monday before a cooling trend begins on Tuesday.  Overnight lows will remain above freezing below 10,000 feet through Monday limiting re-freeze potential near and below treeline. 

THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITYSince October 1st (the wet season), we have received 36.99 inches of water, normal is 36.47 inches, putting us at 101% of normal.  For the month of April we've received 0.26 inches of water, normal is 1.01 inches, putting us at 25% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 27.50 inches of water, normal is 21.26 inches, putting us at 129% of normal.

Recent Observations

Observations from the field yesterday are once again limited to what was reported from our four weather stations, and what was witnessed of the snow around Bunny Flat.  Poor overnight refreeze and daytime warming kept the snow soft near and below treeline.  Above treeline the snow conditions varied depending on elevation.  The upper ramparts of the mountain (above 11,000 feet) remained firm while from Helen Lake (10,450 feet) down to treeline probably hosted some corn snow conditions.  The late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms brought rain and snow to multiple zones within our forecast area.  At higher elevations (above 10,000 feet) where snow fell there is the potential that newly developed wind slabs may exist.  The size, distribution and sensitivity to trigger are not know due to lack of observations.  The cloud cover and the possibility of thunderstorm activity today will probably prevent most folks from venturing too far beyond treeline. Near and below treeline folks should continue to be cautious of loose wet snow instabilities due to poor overnight refreeze and relatively warm daytime temperatures.  The likely hood of encountering any roller balls, pinwheels, or point release loose wet slides is minimal due to cloud cover and scattered rain showers.  Areas where loose wet snow may be found will be on southerly facing aspects on slopes 37 degrees and steeper. Continue to use safe travel techniques staying well spaced, and crossing suspect slopes one at a time. 

Climbing Conditions: Current climbing conditions are good to great. Steadily increasing temperatures this week with overnight lows above freezing will not allow a solid snow re-freeze at night. This could mean post-holing at lower elevations.  At higher elevations (11,000 feet and above), however, snow will refreeze better and be firm in the morning hours making crampons (and ice axe) necessary equipment.
Below are some things to think about when planning your trip this Spring:

  1. Avalanche Danger & Weather: You may encounter a variety of snow conditions during the spring time.  Late season storms can bring fresh snow and high winds to the mountains. Avalanche danger can quickly spike due to new wind and storm slabs on top of icy, firm melt/freeze snow. Further, warm and sometimes downright hot days can create loose wet avalanches. Low danger in the cool morning hours may rise rapidly to higher danger during the afternoon hours on sunny aspects. These are two different avalanche problems associated with different weather patterns with both being possible during the same week, or even the same day. A beacon, shovel and probe continue to be essential, even during Spring time. Always check the avalanche advisory before starting your climb, and call the ranger station for the latest in weather and conditions. Spring time weather patterns can bring it all.  The point is... you need to bring the appropriate attire to accommodate all weather conditions. Snow, rain, sun, wind... you can count on all of it on Shasta at some point during Spring time. Further, Mt Shasta can often host a cloud cap creating poor visibility conditions. DO NO climb into a white-out. It is very easy to wander off the WRONG side of Mt Shasta when on the upper mountain, >12,500 feet. This can create a long day and perhaps night for climber, party members, rescue resources and family. Play it safe. 
  2. Firm and smooth snow (slide for life conditions): Snow conditions on Mount Shasta are great right now. That being said, the snow in the morning hours is very firm and very smooth. These types of conditions have caused serious injury in the past to those who slip, trip, or fall and fail to self-arrest as they slide.  You MUST know how to self-arrest with an ice axe. This is one of your best defenses for a safe trip on Mt Shasta. Practice this and other climbing skills on small, short slopes in soft snow. If you fall, you must immediately self-arrest or you will take a long, sliding, tumbling fall resulting in serious injury or death. Along with your solid ice axe skills, know how to walk/climb with crampons on.  It is easy to catch the front points of the crampon on the cuff of your pant leg resulting in a fall if you are not careful with each step.
  3. Rime Ice:  What is rime ice? Rime ice forms on rocks, towers, etc. as super cooled water droplets freeze upon contact with a solid object. The ice grows into the wind taking on a cauliflower like appearance. The exposed rocks on Mt Shasta at higher elevations are currently plastered in rime ice. This hazard will diminish as the ice flakes off on warm days, but until then... HEADS UP! You absolutely should wear a helmet if climbing. As the days warm, chances increase of getting hit by falling ice until all of it falls off.

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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:

The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape still and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes.  These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees.  Trails are not groomed.  Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track.  These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway.  Thank you, and enjoy!

The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is CLOSED for the season. http://www.mtshastanordic.org

The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open, however snow is dwindling fast at these locations. One had to drive down the 19 road (Military Pass) a mile or so to get to consistent snow before unloading just a few days ago. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.

The Castle Lake Road is OPEN. The Everett Memorial Highway is OPEN. The Castle Lake and Everett Hwy are plowed year round to the trailheads. The roads are not always first priority, so your dawn patrol powder mission might be ceased if the plow has not made it up yet. Siskiyou County does a great job keeping the roads clear. Be respectful of the plow drivers if you encounter them. If you get to Bunny Flat before or during when the plow is there, please park on the uphill, LEFT side of the parking lot as you drive in. This is uphill and lookers right of the bathrooms. Thank You!

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.

 

 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 50 F, two degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. Skies are overcast with calm wind.

    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 39 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 131 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement.  Temperatures have ranged from 37 F to 49 F.

    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 40 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 37 F to 49 F.  Wind speeds are not available for Gray Butte at this time.  The anemometer was taken down due to the need for repairs.  Thank you for your understanding.

    Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)... 

    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 41 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 40 F to 59 F. Snow on the ground totals 53 inches with no new snow and 3 inches of settlement.

    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 42 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 37 F to 54 F. Snow on the ground measures 63 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement. Winds have been variable in nature with an average of 2 mph, and a maximum gust of 11 mph out of the east/southeast.

    Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

     

     

     

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 35
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 51
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: N/A
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: N/A mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: N/A mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
    Total snow depth: 75 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Sunday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Sunday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Monday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather Cloudy with a 50% chance of scattered showers. Thunderstorms are possible after 11 am. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11 pm, then scattered showers. Chance of precip. 60%. Partly sunny with a 30% chance of showers with thunderstorms also possible after 2 pm.
    Temperature (°F) 51 38 52
    Wind (mi/hr) West 5-10 mph West 5-10 mph Southwest around 5 mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Sunday Sunday Night Monday
    Weather Cloudy with a 50% chance of scattered snow showers, mainly after 11 am. Some thunderstorms are also possible. Blustery Mostly cloudy with snow showers likely, mainly before 11 pm. Some thunderstorms are also possible. Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of snow showers, mainly after 11 am. Some thunder is also possible after 2 pm.
    Temperature (°F) 31 30 30
    Wind (mi/hr) East 10-15 mph Northeast 1-3 Southeast around 5 mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 1-3 / 1-3 / 0-1

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.