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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-12-05 06:41:35
- EXPIRED ON December 6, 2016 @ 6:41 amPublished on December 5, 2016 @ 6:41 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
LOW avalanche dangers continues for all aspects and elevations today. Strong northwest wind has scoured the snowpack and created firm snow conditions above treeline on Mt Shasta. A slip and fall on a steep slope without self arrest could result in a long slide for life. Ice axe, crampons and a helmet are recommended for travel on above treeline, steep slopes. The west side of the forecast area hosts a shallow snowpack with rock and manzanita avoidance skills mandatory.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
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Normal caution is advised for our forecast area today. We've received no new snow over the last 24 hours. The small storm that came through may have deposited some dust on crust on the mountain, but no new snow registered at our 7,800 ft snow depth sensor. Remember that LOW danger does not mean NO danger. Keep your head on a swivel and always be on the lookout for isolated areas of instability....and this time of year, shallow buried objects causing injury is certainly still possible.
Train like you fight, fight like you train. Yes, the avalanche danger is LOW.... NO, you should not throw caution to the wind. Now is a great time to practice and hone your backcountry travel skills. When you wake up, look outside. What's the weather like? What's the snow look like? Pay attention to your surroundings before you even set your foot outside your car at the trailhead. Make a plan, discuss it. Does it make sense? Does it fit the days avalanche danger and avalanche problems? Be the sqeaky wheel! Evaluate the snowpack as you make your way into the backcountry. Do you need to change your plan? Are you seeing any of mother natures obvious, FREE signs of instability? Shooting cracks, whoomfing, recent avalanches, recent heavy snow, rapid warming, wind blowing snow? Moving through avalanche terrain? Move one at a time, avoid terrain traps, determine safe zones. Practicing all this now will ensure safe and fun backcountry skiing and riding when conditions are not so friendly.
Forecast Discussion
The 2016/17 winter in Mt Shasta is off to a great start. We've already had several decent storms and we hope it continues! The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows Northern California to host below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the next month.
Snow totals on the mountain range from 2-4 feet below and near treeline. One will find about 4-6 feet at upper elevations. West of I-5 in the Castle/Mt Eddy regions, snow totals are less but still in the 1-2 foot range. The most usable areas for backcountry recreation is still limited to Mt Shasta itself. Predominantly cooler temperatures and a lot of wind has kept things variable and firm. A brief warm up a few days ago softened things up, however that was short lived. We are back into cold and windy conditions. Tonight and tomorrow will hopefully provide a few new inches of snow to freshen things up. Any new snow today will be late in the day and likely not affect the avalanche danger for backcountry users until tomorrow.
Be cautious of smooth, firm and slick snow on steep slopes above treeline. An ice axe, crampons and a helmet are absolutely necessary during conditions as such.
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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:
The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape still and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes. These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is CLOSED for the time being but will be opening soon! The trails are covered in snow and they are working on getting things going this month. http://www.mtshastanordic.org
The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open, however there is no snow at these locations currently. One must drive down the 19 road (Military Pass) for an unknown distance to get to consistent snow before unloading. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.
The Castle Lake Road is OPEN. The Everett Memorial Highway is OPEN. The Castle Lake and Everett Hwy are plowed year round to the trailheads. The roads are not always first priority, so your dawn patrol powder mission might be ceased if the plow has not made it up yet. Siskiyou County does a great job keeping the roads clear. Be respectful of the plow drivers if you encounter them. If you get to Bunny Flat before or during when the plow is there, please park on the uphill, LEFT side of the parking lot as you drive in. This is uphill and lookers right of the bathrooms. Thank You!
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Recent Observations
Yesterday, our MSAC field observer provided observations from the Castle Lake area. Castle is still hosting a shallow snow pack with rock and manzanita avoidance skills necessary. The Castle Lake snowpack has variable conditions from breakable crust, soft snow in the trees, shady areas and northerly aspects. Ridgelines are a mix of packed powder, wind crusts and sastrugi. Heavy and wet snow was noted yesterday however with our drastic drop in temperatures, the snowpack has frozen well last night and will stay firm today. Overall a right side up snowpack exists up there and no instabilites were noted.
Below, click to view the Castle Lake snowpit profile, current photos and more details from that area. ("Middle Peak" - 12/4/16)
On Mt Shasta, conditions remain the same. Winds have been blowing steady over the past 24 hours, almost a constant 30-40 mph northwest wind recorded at the Gray Butte station with gusts in the 50-60 mph range. The weak system that has passed over only brought .01 inches of precip to Mt Shasta City. On the mountain, no new snow was detected from the Old Ski Bowl station, however a skiff may have fallen making for some classic dust on crust and other variable surfaces!
Please submit your observations via our new 'SUBMIT OBSERVATIONS', big BLUE buttons under the advisory tab. It's easy and helps us give the best possible avalanche advisory. Try it out!
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Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
The cold system mentioned yesterday has moved south over the area bringing some very light rain and snow. Temperatures have dropped considerably and we may see the coldest night of the year on Tuesday night. Some areas may see single digit low's. Precipitation has ended this morning. Later today/tonight another round will ensue bringing perhaps a couple inches of snow to southern Siskiyou County, mainly to upper elevations. Once again, Crater Lake and Lake of the Woods area will get the most snow from this storm. Tuesday will clear out and be followed by cold weather. Wedneday, a warm front pushes in. Thursday through Saturday night a significant system arrives.
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In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 30 F, eight degrees cooler than yesterday.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 18 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 42 inches with with no new snow and little settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 12 F to 38F.
Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 19 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 19 F to 36 F. Northwest winds have been constant and steady over the last 24 hours, averaging 30-40 mph with gusts 50-60 mph, and a max gust of 64 mph.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 22 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 22 F to 43 F. Snow on the ground totals 15 inches with no new snow and one inch settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 19 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 19 F to 38 F. Snow on the ground measures 18 inches with no new snow and little settlement. Winds have been east/southeast in nature with an average of 2-3 mph, and a maximum gust of 11 mph, ESE.
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 16.48 inches of water, normal is 8.26 inches, putting us at 199% of normal. For the month of December we received 0.01 inches of water, normal is .90 inches, putting us at 1% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 49.38 inches of water, normal is 36.26 inches, putting us at 136% of normal.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 21 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 39 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | Northwest |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 10-20 mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 30 mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 24 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Monday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Monday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Tuesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 4pm. Partly sunny, Blustery | Snow showers likely, mainly after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, Blustery | Snow showers likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny |
| Temperature (°F) | 26 | 17 | 22 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | North/Northwest 15-20 mph | West/Northwest 15-20 mph | West/Northwest 15-20 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0-.5 | / 1-3 | / 2-4 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Monday | Monday Night | Tuesday | |
| Weather | A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 4pm. Partly sunny. Windy | Snow showers, mainly after 10pm. Windy | Snow showers likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny and cold, Windy. |
| Temperature (°F) | 18 | 3 | 7 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | West/Northwest 30-40 mph, gusts to 50+ mph | West/Northwest 0-.5 | West/Northwest 20-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0-.5 | / 2-4 | / 2-4 |
