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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-12-06 06:43:59
- EXPIRED ON December 7, 2016 @ 6:43 amPublished on December 6, 2016 @ 6:43 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
LOW avalanche danger continues for all aspects and elevations today. Normal caution is advised. Watch out for shallow buried objects in some areas.
Strong northwest wind has scoured the snowpack and created firm snow conditions above treeline on Mt Shasta. A slip and fall on a steep slope without self arrest could result in a long slide for life. Ice axe, crampons and a helmet are recommended for travel on above treeline, steep slopes.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
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Normal caution is advised for our forecast area today. We've received a trace of new snow over the last 24 hours. The small storm that came through may have deposited some dust on crust on the mountain, but no new snow registered at our 7,800 ft snow depth sensor. Remember that LOW danger does not mean NO danger. Keep your head on a swivel and always be on the lookout for isolated areas of instability....and this time of year, shallow buried objects causing injury is certainly still possible.
Train like you fight, fight like you train. Yes, the avalanche danger is LOW.... NO, you should not throw caution to the wind. Now is a great time to practice and hone your backcountry travel skills. When you wake up, look outside. What's the weather like? What's the snow look like? Pay attention to your surroundings before you even set your foot outside your car at the trailhead. Make a plan, discuss it. Does it make sense? Does it fit the days avalanche danger and avalanche problems? Be the sqeaky wheel! Evaluate the snowpack as you make your way into the backcountry. Do you need to change your plan? Are you seeing any of mother natures obvious, FREE signs of instability? Shooting cracks, whoomfing, recent avalanches, recent heavy snow, rapid warming, wind blowing snow? Moving through avalanche terrain? Move one at a time, avoid terrain traps, determine safe zones. Practicing all this now will ensure safe and fun backcountry skiing and riding when conditions are not so friendly.
Forecast Discussion
The 2016/17 winter in Mt Shasta is off to a great start. We've already had several decent storms and we hope it continues! The NWS Climate Prediction Center shows Northern California to host below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for the next month.
We were hoping for a bit more snow out of this last system, however the forecast area sat a bit south to get the brunt of the storm. New snow totals are just about nil and thus our conditions remain more or less the same. Cold temperatures are going to keep the snow firm and breakable crusts, well....breakable. Today is the day to bundle up and go hunt for your secret cold snow stash and squeeze a few last drops of blood, I mean powder turns, out of our wind and weather hammered snowpack.
Snow totals on the mountain range from 2-4 feet below and near treeline. One will find about 4-6 feet at upper elevations. West of I-5 in the Castle/Mt Eddy regions, snow totals are less but still in the 1-2 foot range. The most usable areas for backcountry recreation is still limited to Mt Shasta itself. Predominantly cooler temperatures and a lot of wind has kept things variable and firm. A brief warm up a few days ago softened things up, however that was short lived. We are back into cold and windy conditions. Be cautious of smooth, firm and slick snow on steep slopes above treeline. An ice axe, crampons and a helmet are absolutely necessary during conditions as such.
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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:
The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape still and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes. These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is CLOSED for the time being but will be opening soon! The trails are covered in snow and they are working on getting things going this month. http://www.mtshastanordic.org
The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open, however there is no snow at these locations currently. One must drive down the 19 road (Military Pass) for several miles to get to consistent snow before unloading. Private industry is logging out there so watch out for log trucks. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.
The Castle Lake Road is OPEN. The Everett Memorial Highway is OPEN. The Castle Lake and Everett Hwy are plowed year round to the trailheads. The roads are not always first priority, so your dawn patrol powder mission might be ceased if the plow has not made it up yet. Siskiyou County does a great job keeping the roads clear. Be respectful of the plow drivers if you encounter them. If you get to Bunny Flat before or during when the plow is there, please park on the uphill, LEFT side of the parking lot as you drive in. This is uphill and lookers right of the bathrooms. Thank You!
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Recent Observations
A little bit of light snow is falling this morning, though this just a few lingering snow flurries as the day is expected to become clear and cold. Local weather stations did not report any new snow in the forecast area from last nights expected storm. Most of the precipitation with this past system fell to the north of us. Any new snow is likely minimal, more dust on crust! Winds on Mt Shasta have been northerly averaging 10 mph until about midnight when northwest winds picked up considerably through the morning today, averaging 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph.
A trip out to the east side of the forecast area yesterday, the Ash Creek Butte region, found an average of 70-90 cm of snow providing for pretty darn good coverage. The snowpack was well set up on a WNW facing slope at approximately 7,500 feet, fairly uniform in density and isothermic. Ridgelines/above treeline were firm and icy making for tricky skinning. Wind packed powder was also the norm above treeline. Near and below treeline aspects exposed to sun had a breakable sun crust. Only shady, cold northerly aspects above 7,000 feet held some pockets of soft, ski worthy snow. No recent or prior evidence of avalanche debris was visible off Ash Creek Butte. Rocks and trees had up to a couple inches of rime on them in exposed areas.
(Ash Creek Butte East Bowl' snowpit profile and photos below)
Please submit your observations via our new 'SUBMIT OBSERVATIONS', big BLUE buttons under the advisory tab. It's easy and helps us give the best possible avalanche advisory. Try it out!
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Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
A rather whimpy storm is already moving east of the area today. Mt Shasta fell to the south end of the storm with the brunt of the precipitation falling in the Southern Oregon region. The sky will clear for today and cold temperatures will set in. Tonight is expected to be the coldest night of the season. The next system, a warm front with a more westerly flow, will arrive on Wednesday and hopefully bring a better shot of snow to the area. Snow levels will rise some, but still provide snow at city level. This one seems a little more promising as the front is aimed a tad further south that the previous. Wednesday's storm will not rain down the heavens, only a modest .31 inches of precip is expected. So, again not a big storm but perhaps enough to freshen things up in the backcountry. Thursday through Saturday, another .81 inches of precipitation forecasted, so perhaps a few inches here and there over the remainder of the week. Plan for mostly windy conditions above treeline on the mountain, also for the rest of the week.
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In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 24 F, six degrees cooler than yesterday.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 17 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 42 inches with with no new snow and little settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 12 F to 26F.
Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 15 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 12 F to 24 F. Moderate northerly winds have averaged 10mph, gusting to 28 mph. At midnight northwest wind has picked up, blowing 25-35 with gusts to 49, NW.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 23 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 18 F to 25 F. Snow on the ground totals 15 inches with no new snow and little settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 19 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 15 F to 22 F. Snow on the ground measures 18 inches with no new snow and little settlement. Winds have been southerly in nature with an average of 1-2 mph, and a maximum gust of 8 mph, SE.
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 16.48 inches of water, normal is 8.49 inches, putting us at 194% of normal. For the month of December we received 0.01 inches of water, normal is 1.13 inches, putting us at a fraction of 1% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 49.38 inches of water, normal is 36.49 inches, putting us at 135% of normal.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 22 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 25 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | Northerly |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 5 mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 10 mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 24 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Tuesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Tuesday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Wednesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Slight chance of snow showers, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny | Mostly clear | Snow, mainly after 4pm. |
| Temperature (°F) | 21 | 14 | 27 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | West/Northwest 10-15 mph | North/Northwest becoming east/northeast after midnight 5-10 | Southeast 5-10 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0-.5 | / 0 | / 1-2 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Tuesday | Tuesday Night | Wednesday | |
| Weather | Slight chance of snow showers, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny and cold, | Mostly clear | Snow, mainly after 4pm |
| Temperature (°F) | 2 | 15 | 25 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Northwest 40-50 mph with gusts 55+ mph | North/Northeast 0-.5 | Northeast becoming southwest 20-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0-.5 | / 0 | / 1-2 |
