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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-12-22 06:12:51
- EXPIRED ON December 23, 2016 @ 6:12 amPublished on December 22, 2016 @ 6:12 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
Today, LOW avalanche danger will prevail for all aspects and elevations in the forecast area. Old, lingering wind slabs still exist above treeline in alpine terrain but have been difficult to trigger. Normal caution is advised.
Smooth and icy slopes exists on the upper mountain. Slide for life conditions are present on Mt Shasta. Strong ice axe, crampons & self arrest skills are highly recommended. Always wear a helmet and carry a beacon, shovel and probe.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
With several days of mostly sun, dry weather and several inches of settlement in the snowpack, the avalanche danger is low and normal caution is advised. Old, lingering wind slabs have been difficult to trigger. In the unlikely chance you encounter a lingering slab, it's probably going to lie in complex terrain... around chutes, cliff bands, shady ridgelines, unsupported convexities. Signs of instability will not be obvious today. Any day, every day: Travel one at a time on or under steep slopes, do not group up in runout zones and make sure your safety zone is safe!
Forecast Discussion
I hate to be this way, but today might be a good work day...chores around the house, last minute Christmas shopping, relaxing, waxing skis, saving your sick day... While the sun will shine for the AM hours, we should see increasing clouds as a storm heads our way. Ski conditions? Pick a card, any card. Wind blown, wind board, breakable crust, icy scour, soft in just the right aspects. Indeed we are due for a refresher and it looks like Mother Nature and Old Man Winter will cook something up for us tonight. For today, the avalanche danger will lie low, however tomorrow it will rise.
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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:
The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes. These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is OPEN for the season! Take advantage of this wonderful venue. Groomed trails accomodate both classic and skate skiing styles. Rentals available. Visit their website for more details. http://www.mtshastanordic.org
The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open, however there is no snow at these locations currently. One must drive down the 19 road (Military Pass) for several miles to get to consistent snow before unloading. Private industry is logging out there so watch out for log trucks. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.
The Castle Lake Road is OPEN. The Everett Memorial Highway is OPEN. The Castle Lake and Everett Hwy are plowed year round to the trailheads. The roads are not always first priority, so your dawn patrol powder mission might be ceased if the plow has not made it up yet. Siskiyou County does a great job keeping the roads clear. Be respectful of the plow drivers if you encounter them. If you get to Bunny Flat before or during when the plow is there, please park on the uphill, LEFT side of the parking lot as you drive in. This is uphill and lookers right of the bathrooms. Thank You!
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Recent Observations
Notable, new observations have been slim. Snowpit tests and visual observations indicate a strong and stable snowpack at the moment. Mostly firm albeit smooth snow conditions were observed in Avalanche Gulch yesterday. Wind erosional features exists as "scabs" across the snow surface. Several inches of settlement has occurred within the snowpack over the week. Upper elevations will host smooth and firm snow providing for a quick descent should one slip and fall and fail to properly self arrest with an ice axe.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
A storm makes its way into the area today bringing a little holiday cheer! About one inch of precipitation is expected out of this system with snow levels near 6,000 feet today and lowering to town by tomorrow. We could see up to a foot of new snow on the mountain. Expect increasing clouds today. Most of the snow and/or rain will fall tonight and into tomorrow morning. A cold front follows the storm and will drop temps for a chilly weekend. It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas!
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In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 20 F, nine degrees cooler than yesterday at this time.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 35 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 67 inches with no new snow and 1 inch of settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 27F to 35F.
Grey Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 34 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 27 F to 34 F. Winds have been blowing out of the east averaging 30 mph, with gusts as high as 56 mph.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 28 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 28 F to 36 F. Snow on the ground totals 16 inches with no new snow and one inch settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 27 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 26 F to 35 F. Snow on the ground measures 24 inches with no new snow and little settlement. Winds have averaged 2-4 mph with gusts to 11 mph, WSW.
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 20.25 inches of water, normal is 12.60 inches, putting us at 160% of normal. For the month of December we received 3.78 inches of water, normal is 5.24 inches, putting us at 72% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 53.15 inches of water, normal is 40.60 inches, putting us at 130% of normal.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 23 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 37 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | East |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 10-20 mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 30 mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 33 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Thursday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Thursday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Friday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Mostly sunny, increasing clouds in the afternoon. | Snow. Heavy at times. Breezy | Snow before 10am, then snow showers after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. Breezy. |
| Temperature (°F) | 38 | 24 | 28 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | South/Southeast 5-10 mph | South 5-10 mph, increasing to 10-15 mph after midnight | South 15-20 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 4-6 | / 6-8 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Thursday | Thursday Night | Friday | |
| Weather | Mostly sunny, increasing clouds. Windy | Snow, mainly after 10pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Windy | Snow before 10am, then snow showers after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. Windy. |
| Temperature (°F) | 28 | 18 | 13 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | West 15-20 mph | South/Southwest 0 | Southwest 40-45 mph, decreasing in the afternoon. |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 3-7 | / 10-12 |
