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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-01-14 06:43:47

  • EXPIRED ON January 15, 2018 @ 6:43 am
    Published on January 14, 2018 @ 6:43 am
  • Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center

LOW avalanche danger exists at all elevations. Falling rime ice will be a significant hazard above treeline on Mount Shasta today. A series of storms beginning tomorrow night will bring snowfall and changing conditions throughout the week.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

Normal caution is advised:

  • Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
  • Don't regroup in run out zones.
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are always essential when you travel in avalanche terrain.

The thin, icy snowpack continues to create backcountry travels hazards. Steep terrain above treeline is challenging and dangerous. Arresting a fall in these conditions is difficult. Watch for rocks and patches of bare ground below treeline.

Forecast Discussion

Snowpack stability is good, and generally safe avalanche conditions exist. Watch for unstable snow on steep slopes facing south and east above 9,000ft. Although unlikely, small wet loose avalanches could be a concern in these isolated areas. Falling rime ice is expected above treeline on Mount Shasta today. Be especially careful in Avalanche Gulch below Redbanks, the Trinity Chutes, and Casaval Ridge.

Recent Observations

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Steady 15-25mph easterly winds blew yesterday near and above treeline. Sunshine and highs in the mid 50s allowed snow surfaces to soften. A small wet loose avalanche occurred on a southeast aspect near 10,000ft in the Old Ski Bowl in the afternoon. Plenty of rime ice came down off rock features in the alpine on Mount Shasta. Slick snow surfaces can be found above treeline. Shallow snowpack hazards continue to exist below treeline. Mount Shasta has the only useable snowpack in the advisory area.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

High pressure will weaken and move eastward today and tonight. Expect partly cloudy skies, highs in the 50s and moderate southeast winds. Patchy fog will continue in the valleys. Low pressure and a series of storms will approach the Pacific Northwest beginning tomorrow. Light precipitation will spread throughout the area by late afternoon and evening. High snow levels between 6,500-7,500ft and gusty southwest winds are expected with this first frontal passage. Snow should begin to accumulate on Tuesday. Heavy precipitation and fluctuating snow levels are expected Wednesday through Friday.

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THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 7.81 inches of water, normal is 18.34 inches, putting us at 43% of normal. For the month of January and 2018, we have received 1.98 inches of water, normal is 3.13 inches, which is 63% of normal. 

Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mount Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 35 30 52 40 3 SW
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 38 32 53 39 11 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 47 40 48 45 23 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 47 40 49 45 16 31 E
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 41 41 52 45 0 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 43 36 49 43 2 12 WSW 10 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Sunday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Sunday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Partly Cloudy Mostly cloudy and breezy. 50% chance of rain and snow.
Temperature (°F) 50 38 43
Wind (mi/hr) South/Southeast 10-15 mph South/Southeast 10-15 mph South/Southeast 10-20 mph
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / <.5
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Sunday Sunday Night Monday
Weather Sunny and Breezy Partly cloudy and windy. 50% chance of snow after 10am. Mostly cloudy. Wind chill values as low as -10 F.
Temperature (°F) 37 29 30
Wind (mi/hr) South 15-25 mph South/Southwest 0 South/Southwest 25-35 mph, gusting 50 mph
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / <.5

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.