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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-02-12 06:41

  • EXPIRED ON February 13, 2018 @ 6:41 am
    Published on February 12, 2018 @ 6:41 am
  • Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations. Avalanches are unlikely and NORMAL CAUTION is advised. Firm and icy snow surfaces are widespread. Shallow snowpack hazards exist. Falling rime ice continues to be a concern above 10,000 ft on Mount Shasta.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

NORMAL CAUTION means:

  • Watch for isolated slabs.
  • Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
  • Don't regroup in run out zones.
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are essential in avalanche terrain.

Isolated slabs are related to wind and terrain. Look for places where small areas of drifting have occurred and firm layers of surface snow overlie softer layers. This will occur on the lee side of ridges, in terrain depressions, on convex terrain features, and in the lee of isolated bands of trees

Forecast Discussion

Sunshine will return today but expect cold temperatures through tomorrow morning. Another chance for light snow flurries is possible tomorrow night, otherwise the drought continues for northern California. Snow surfaces are firm and icy, and arresting a fall on a steep slope in these conditions would be difficult. Be sure to watch for rockfall and rime icefall in upper elevation terrain on Mount Shasta. LOW avalanche danger and normal caution will continue until a significant weather event occurs.

Recent Observations

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Yesterday’s storm brought waves of snow showers broken up by periods of sun and clear skies. Mount Shasta City got a dusting of snow while one inch accumulated at the Old Ski Bowl weather station. Northwest winds were strong with gusts up to 56 mph recorded at the Grey Butte weather station. The wind direction shifted to the northeast overnight but has become variable this morning. The new snow has done very little to change conditions throughout the advisory area. The most notable change has been the return of below freezing temperatures with lows in the teens overnight. A drive out to the north side of Shasta yesterday revealed easy access to the Northgate trailhead with a 4-wheel-drive vehicle. Snow cover above the trailhead is patchy and thin up to 8,000 ft.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Clouds will diminish by mid morning and high pressure will return, bringing clear skies and sunshine. High temperatures will reach the low 30s while north/northeast winds will blow 10-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph near treeline. Tonight, skies will remain clear with lows near 20 degrees. Tomorrow will be dry, clear and warm with highs in the mid 40s. Tuesday night into Wednesday brings another chance for a dusting of snow in the mountains.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 6:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 30 23 44 35 6 W
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 21 21 38 28 19 1 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 17 17 38.5 26 40 1 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 17 16.5 37.5 24.5 12 56 NW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 21 21 40.5 30 8 .5 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 18.5 18.5 38 26.5 3 11 SE 20 1 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Monday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Monday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 30 20 40
Wind (mi/hr) N 10-15 mi/hr NE 10-15 mi/hr E 10-15 mi/hr
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Monday Monday Night Tuesday
Weather Sunny and windy. Wind chill values as low as -13 degrees F. Clear and windy. Wind chill values as low as -15 degrees F. Sunny and windy. Wind chill values as low as -11 degrees F.
Temperature (°F) 13 13 26
Wind (mi/hr) N/NE 30-40 mi/hr NE 0 E/NE 30-40 mi/hr
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2024 (the wet season) 10.11 24.46 41
Month to Date (since Dec 1, 2024) 0.00 2.19 0
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 4.28 9.25 46

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.