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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-02-15 05:53

  • EXPIRED ON February 16, 2018 @ 5:53 am
    Published on February 15, 2018 @ 5:53 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Avalanche danger is LOW and NORMAL CAUTION is advised. Firm and icy snow surfaces are widespread and shallow snowpack hazards exist. Icefall and potentially rockfall is a concern above 11,000 ft on Mount Shasta. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
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NORMAL CAUTION means:

  • Watch for isolated slabs.
  • Ski and ride one at a time in avalanche terrain.
  • Don't regroup in run out zones.
  • Basic avalanche rescue skills are essential in avalanche terrain.

Isolated slabs are related to wind and terrain. Look for places where small areas of drifting have occurred and firm layers of surface snow overlie softer layers. This will occur on the lee side of ridges, in terrain depressions, on convex terrain features, and in the lee of isolated bands of trees.

Forecast Discussion

Cool temperatures and moderate/strong northwest wind has left the snowpack on Mount Shasta unchanged for today. Expect wind eroded and smooth, glazed, icy snow surfaces. Wear a helmet and bring an ice axe, crampons, and the knowledge to use them if traveling on steep terrain. Although temperatures will be cold today, strong winds can dislodge rime ice caked to Red Banks and the Trinity Chutes. Beware of this hazard above 11,000 ft. Rockfall was also noted by a couple climbers in the same area a few days ago. 

Climbing Mount Shasta this weekend? Remember, it is still Winter. This means firm and icy climbing conditions and the potential for extreme wind and cold temperatures. Even a small storm can create white-out conditions and make navigation very difficult. Snow surfaces will not soften. Avalanche danger can rise quickly. Plan ahead and prepare properly. Don't become a statistic. 

 

Recent Observations

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A skiff of snow fell yesterday evening between 1800-1900 hours. Weather stations are recording about .5 inches of new snow this morning...ye ol' dust on crust situation.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies and moderate to strong northwesterly winds prevailed yesterday on Mount Shasta with highs reaching 31 degrees at 7600 ft. The snowpack is 1-4 ft deep above 7,000 ft. It is a consolidated mass comprised mostly of hard melt-freeze crusts and ice layers. Snow surfaces were firm and icy right out of the Bunny Flat parking lot yesterday and coverage is spotty below treeline. The road up into the Old Ski Bowl is still in decent shape with thin snow coverage. 

The upper Sand Flat road and cross-country ski trails are still in. Conditions are marginal. The lower road and trails are out of service. 

The Castle Lake and Mount Edddy backcountry has 8 to 12 inches of snow but coverage is inconsistent and sparse. Winter recreation is limited. Parks Creek Pass received 2 inches of new snow from Sunday's storm and has the best coverage. See the most recent observation for details.

No avalanches or evidence of unstable snow have been observed so far this month.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Clear and dry weather will take us into the weekend. Temperatures will bump up a few degrees warmer during the day. North winds are moderate to strong on the mountain. The next best shot at precipitation, albeit insignificant, will be Saturday night and Sunday. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 28 28 51 37 5
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 23 23 34 30 19 .5 .03 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 20 14 31.5 22 39.5 .5 .03 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 20 15.5 26.5 21 14 37 WNW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 18 18 41 28.5 8 .5 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 18 16.5 34 25 2 10 SE 22.5 .5 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) Station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) Station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Thursday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Partly cloudy Sunny
Temperature (°F) 36 28 42
Wind (mi/hr) N 5-10 mi/hr N 5-10 mi/hr NW 10-15 mi/hr
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Thursday Thursday Night Friday
Weather Sunny. Windy. Partly cloudy, blustery Sunny. Windy.
Temperature (°F) 24 24 27
Wind (mi/hr) N 20-30 mi/hr N 0 N 15-25 mi/hr
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2024 (the wet season) 10.19 25.67 40
Month to Date (since Dec 1, 2024) 0.08 3.40 2
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 4.36 10.46 42

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mount Shasta, Castle Lake and Mount Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.