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Avalanche Advisory for 2018-12-05 06:00

  • EXPIRED ON December 6, 2018 @ 6:00 am
    Published on December 5, 2018 @ 6:00 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations. Exercise normal caution. LOW avalanche danger does not mean NO avalanche danger. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully as you travel in the backcountry. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet will be essential if climbing above treeline.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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  • Likelihood ?
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    Very Likely
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Generally safe avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry. Both natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely. Exercise NORMAL CAUTION and watch for isolated wind slabs on leeward slopes. Wind pillows, hollow sounding snow, shooting cracks, and harder snow atop softer snow are signs that a wind slab may be nearby.

Forecast Discussion

Snow surfaces above treeline have been scoured and beaten by the wind. Sunny weather over the next few days may lure climbers out into alpine regions. Make sure to bring an ice axe and helmet with the knowledge to use them. Wear a helmet.

Sunnier and warmer weather is expected over the next few days. The well preserved dry snow below treeline may begin to soften. If a foot of dry snow interests you, know that it won't linger much longer.

Recent Observations

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A tour towards the Sierra Club Cabin yesterday (see observation below), saw an overall stable snowpack with no signs of recent avalanche activity. Test profiles show mostly rounded grains with right side up layers. Most start zones below ridges do not have much snow on them and no signs of a wind slab problem were seen. Near and above treeline snow surfaces are wind affected and little snow is available for transport. Snow below treeline remains light and dry with F to 4F hardness down 12-16 inches.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Expect cloudy skies today with mostly sunny and warmer conditions returning tomorrow. Snow levels will rise to 4200 ft by tonight. Expect dry weather until Sunday when wetter conditions return for several days.

Check out the Climate Prediction Center's One Month Outlook for precipitation:

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 31 31 41 35.5 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 27 25 31 29 29 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 27.5 23.5 30 28 36.9 0.3 0 1.5
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 26.5 18 28 25 9 25 ESE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) station down
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 26 23.5 33.5 28 1 6 SSW 28.9 0 2
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) station down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) station down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Wednesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10 a.m. Cloudy. Mostly cloudy. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 31 26 31
Wind (mi/hr) E 3 E 5 E 4
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / < 0.5 / 0 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly before 10 a.m. Cloudy. Mostly cloudy. Mostly sunny. Blustery.
Temperature (°F) 20 20 26
Wind (mi/hr) E 11 NE < 0.5 NE 17
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / < 0.5 / 0 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2024 (the wet season) 5.07 8.26 61
Month to Date (since Dec 1, 2024) 0.34 0.90 38
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 20.35 36.26 56

Disclaimer

This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires on midnight of the date it was posted unless otherwise noted.