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Avalanche Forecast for 2019-12-30 06:00
- EXPIRED ON December 31, 2019 @ 6:00 amPublished on December 30, 2019 @ 6:00 am
- Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
Bottom Line
Avalanche danger is LOW. Avalanches are unlikely but not impossible. Continue to look out for small wind slabs sitting on top of a slippery crust in isolated areas or in extreme terrain. That icy crust can easily throw you off your feet and could drag you on a slide-for-life ride. An ice axe and crampons are mandatory for climbers and know that self-arrest will be difficult.
Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
Light winds and minimal snowfall has diminished concerns for wind slabs. If you find them, they'll be small, and in isolated areas. The main concern is being swept off your feet and taken into dangerous terrain or on a slide-for-life ride. A widespread slippery crust exists near and above treeline. Sharp ski edges, crampons, and an ice axe are mandatory if venturing into the alpine. It'll be best to avoid terrain over 30 degrees. It is just too darn slick out there.
Recent Observations
In the last 24 hours on Mount Shasta, temperatures have ranged from 31 to 22 deg F. Winds were calm maxing out at 5 mi/hr. Near to 2 inches of new snow has fallen.
As of 3 p.m. yesterday, about an inch of snow had fallen on top of a slippery crust. Skinning on slopes greater than 20 degrees was challenging. Winds were calm to light. No signs of wind affect were seen. Any old wind slabs encountered were small, isolated, and unreactive. Very little snow was available for transport. Snow surfaces were extremely slick and difficult to navigate.
Column tests yielded no notabled results.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Over the next 24 hours, expect clear, dry conditions and light to moderate winds out of the northeast.
On Wednesday, a smattering of snow is expected but don't blink your eyes or you'll miss it. High pressure will keep things mostly dry until Saturday when a bit of precipitation may squeak through.
24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM
| Weather Station | Temp (°F) | Wind (mi/hr) | Snow (in) | Comments | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cur | Min | Max | Avg | Avg | Max Gust | Dir | Depth | New | Water Equivalent | Settlement | ||
| Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) | 33 | 30 | 38 | 34.5 | 1 | N | ||||||
| Sand Flat (6750 ft) | 21 | 21 | 33 | 28 | 40 | 1 | 0 | 1 | ||||
| Ski Bowl (7600 ft) | 25.5 | 22 | 31.5 | 26 | 46 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | ||||
| Gray Butte (8000 ft) | 28 | 21 | 29 | 25 | 3 | 25 | E | |||||
| Castle Lake (5870 ft) | down | |||||||||||
| Mount Eddy (6509 ft) | 28.5 | 26.5 | 36 | 29.5 | 1 | 10 | SW | 33.9 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) | down | |||||||||||
| Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) | down |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Monday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Monday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Tuesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Sunny. | Partly cloudy. | Partly sunny. |
| Temperature (°F) | 35 | 31 | 39 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Northeast 5-10 | Northeast 5-10 | North 5-10 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | 0.00 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Monday | Monday Night | Tuesday | |
| Weather | Sunny. Blustery. Gusty. | Partly cloudy. Windy and gusty. | Partly sunny. Windy and gusty. |
| Temperature (°F) | 23 | 20 | 30 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Northeast 20-25 | Northeast 25-30 | North 25-30 |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | 0.00 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 | 0.00 / 0 |
Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City
| Period | Measured (in) | Normal (in) | Percent of Normal (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| From Oct 1, 2024 (the wet season) | 8.93 | 14.70 | 61 |
| Month to Date (since Dec 1, 2024) | 6.25 | 7.34 | 85 |
| Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) | 46.67 | 42.70 | 109 |
