Avalanche Advisory for 2015-01-31 06:49:10

Same same, but different! Knowbody is deficit of vitamin D this January, granted you've been out enjoying some of this beautiful sun shining down upon Northern California. Chris Carr of Shasta Mountain Guides said it well, "It's hard to complain with mild temps and smooth, sun softened corn snow, but this is the time of year for frozen fingers and raging wood stoves!" Yes indeed. While it's easy to jump to conclusions like, "...winter is over", we still have two full precipitable months and I'm resting faith. Nicholas Sparks said from A Walk to Remember, "I don't think that we're meant to understand it all the time. I think that sometimes we just have to have faith."

Last call for generous servings of corn! One more day of sun, corn snow and clear skies before we begin to enter the beginning of a stormy week. Clouds will enter the area tomorrow and bring some light precip to the area for the start of the work week. More to come on the extent of this storm in tomorrows advisory. 

As of late, the skiing and riding have been excellent over the last week as sunny skies, and relatively warm daytime temperatures have kept the melt/freeze cycle working well. Per standard corn skiing protocol... elevation, aspect, time of day, 24 hour high and low temps and clouds/wind will all factor when and where the best skiing will be. In general, low to mid elevation slopes E-SE-S facing during the early to mid afternoon are best! All this corn ski fun and sun will come to a temporary rest as stormy weather crescendos beginning tomorrow and over the week. 

We've been hard pressed to find any signs of instability for over a week now here at the MSAC. Even with our very warm spell last weekend, we had zero observed loose/wet roller balls and/or point release instabilities on slopes accessible from Bunny Flat trailhead. Pit profiles and stability tests have confirmed our strong, isothermal (equal temperature) snowpack and in general we've measured 68 inches near treeline on Mt Shasta (7,600-7,900 feet). This will provide a great base for the second half of winter.

Climbing conditions have been very good, however take note: climbers headed onto the upper mountain will find smooth and firm snow surface conditions presenting the possibility for "slide for life" incidents... while snow surface conditions as such provide for great climbing, it also ups the ante should one fall. It goes without saying, but bring your crampons, helmet, and ice axe and WEAR A HELMET! Rime and water ice plastered on exposed rocks has been flaking off and falling onto climbers below. Keep your head up and watch for this hazard, especially on the Avalanche Gulch route above Lake Helen. No instabilities have been observed or recorded on the upper mountain.

To summarize, concerns for skiing and climbing on Shasta will be: 1) Rime and water ice melting/flaking off exposed rocks and falling onto one below 2) Smooth and firm upper mountain conditions posing the threat for a slide for life should one slip and fall. 

Top row, left to right: Skier ascends the upper ramparts of Powder/Sun Bowl - Photo: J Dove / Green Butte Ridge, 10,000 feet, looking south - Photo: N Meyers
Middle row: Nick Meyers and Jon Dove help set up for the recent Shasta Ascension Backcountry Ski Race in The Old Ski Bowl - Photo: G Beck
Bottom row: Powder Bowl shredder - Photo: J Dove / Green Butte Ridge and Avalanche Gulch - Photo: S Rathbun
(All photos from within the last week)

Report your observations to the MSAC! A photo, a few words... send them in! (nimeyers@fs.fed.us or 530-926-9614)

Castle Lake area has a shallow snowpack. Be careful of shallow buried objects. Skiing has been reported as poor to non-existent.

Sand Flat Winter Trails: OPEN, trail conditions are firm and getting thin with some tree debris on snow surface. 

Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park: OPEN, however due to lack of low elevation snow, one must drive up the road several miles before enough snow is encountered. One CANNOT DRIVE over Military Pass.

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Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

Snowpack:  If snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include:  1) Recent/current avalanche activity  2) Whumpfing sounds or shooting cracks  3) Recent/current heavy snowfall  4) Strong winds transporting snow  5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.