Avalanche Advisory for 2015-03-08 06:39:40

We have been back into a run of copius amounts of Vitamin D, Vitamin C (Corn), tanning and/or sun burns, and apres ski flip flops-n-beverages. Tree wells are beginning to show at 6,950 feet (Bunny Flat area) and 2-4 feet of snow remains on the ground at that elevation. An unfortunate sign of Spring, though we have high hopes that we'll get a few more storms before the big lady sings. At treeline, we are still looking good with 80-90 inches of rock solid snow and most, if not all of the routes accessed from Bunny Flat are in good shape.
Of focus now is a storm set to arrive late Tuesday this week bringing up to .5 inches of precip over a few days, high snow levels (beginning near 8 to 9,000 feet and lowering to 6,000 ft) and windy conditions, southwesterly. We don't like to be Debbie Downer, but overall March is not looking incredibly wet or wild... so we are feeling fortunate to get any extra snow to pad our spring skiing and climbing season.

A couple of nice photos from the upper mountain (3/1/15), Avalanche Gulch/Trinity Chutes area.  [Photo: S Rathbun]

Observations over the weekend have indicated overall low avalanche danger with Mt Shasta's strong, melt-freeze snowpack. Near record high temperatures yesterday and above freezing nighttime temps have raised concern for heat related instabilities. That said, the snowpack stability remains good and we have not observed nor been able to trigger any significant instabilities such as loose wet sluffs, roller balls and/or pinwheels on any aspect/elevation. One should not let their guard down as the chance of human triggered instabilities will only increase today and tomorrow in response to daytime warming and poor over night re-freeze. Wet avalanche activity is a bit hard to predict when it will happen, both for human triggering and naturally occuring. The main point is to be cautious on steep slopes that directly face the sun during those early to mid afternoon hours. Evaluate the snow and terrain: watch for wet snow on sunny slopes, ski one at a time, be on the lookout for terrain traps and stop in safe zones. Wet loose snow can start small and gain speed and size as they move down the slope.

The "Catwalk" and Trinity Chutes, 3/1/15.  [Photo: S Rathbun]

For folks that plan on climbing Mt. Shasta:  Route conditions on Casaval Ridge, Sargents Ridge, and Avalanche Gulch are currently good.  That being said, there are some objective hazards to be noted.  Snow surfaces will be firm and smooth in the early morning hours and will make for "slide for life" conditions.  Should one slip and fall and are unable to self-arrest, a long tumble is a possibility.  Ice fall from rime ice that still partially covers the Red Banks and other rock outcroppings is happening, even in the early morning hours.  A helmet, crampons, and a mountain axe are necessary equipment and should be used. 


Upper Avalanche Gulch area, 3/1/15.  [Photo: S Rathbun]

Castle Lake and Mt Eddy zones are still hosting a shallow snowpack. All areas below about 6,000 feet in the forecast area are hosting patchy snow with dirt showing around trees and in sunny spots.  For Castle Lake, skiing is out of the question at this point due to lack of snow.

Report your observations to the MSAC! A photo, a few words... send them in! (nimeyers@fs.fed.us or 530-926-9614)

Sand Flat Winter Trails: OPEN, trail conditions are firm and getting thin with some tree debris on snow surface. 

Pilgrim Creek Snowmobile Park: OPEN, however due to lack of low elevation snow, one must drive up the road several miles before enough snow is encountered. One CANNOT DRIVE over Military Pass. Snowmobiling is not recommended due to low snow depths.

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Terrain:  Remember most of the terrain that we like to play on is greater than 30 degrees.  Avalanches are possible on anything steeper than 30 degrees.  Avoid cornices, rock bands, terrain traps and runout zones of avalanche paths.

Weather:  Most of our areas avalanche danger will occur 24-48 hours after a storm. We still can see persistent weak layers from time to time and we always will be sure to let you know about that!  Heed the basic signs: Wind (significant snow transport and depositions), Temperature (rain/snow/rain/snow, which in turn weakens the snowpack), and Precipitation (Snow or rain add weight and stress to the current snowpack).

Snowpack:  If snow accumulates, give the snowpack a chance to adjust to the new snow load before you play on or near steep slopes (greater than 30 degrees).  Most direct action avalanches occur within 24-48 hours of recent snowfall.  Watch for obvious signs of snowpack instability such as recent natural avalanche activity, collapsing of the snowpack (often associated with a “whumphing” sound), and shooting cracks. If you see these signs of instability, limit your recreation to lower angle slopes.

Human Factor: Don’t forget to carry and know how to use avalanche rescue gear. You should NOT be skiing or climbing potential avalanche slopes without having beacons, shovels, and probes.  Only one person in a group should be exposed to potential avalanche danger at a time.  Remember, climbing, skiing, and riding down the edge of slopes is safer than being in the center.  Just because another person is on a slope doesn’t mean that it is safe.  Be an individual!  Make your own decisions.  Heed the signs of instability: rapid warming, “whumphing” noises, shooting cracks, snowing an inch an hour or more, rain, roller balls, wind loading, recent avalanche activity.

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include:  1) Recent/current avalanche activity  2) Whumpfing sounds or shooting cracks  3) Recent/current heavy snowfall  4) Strong winds transporting snow  5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.