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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-04-03 07:00:30
- EXPIRED ON April 4, 2016 @ 7:00 amPublished on April 3, 2016 @ 7:00 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
LOW avalanche danger exists for all elevations and aspects this morning. Pockets of MODERATE danger will form for loose-wet related instabilities on sun exposed slopes 35 degrees and steeper on E-SE-S-SW aspects below 10,000 feet. Distribution of loose wet snow avalanche activity will be limited today due to increasing cloud cover, cooling temperatures and light winds.
Falling rime ice off exposed rocks and smooth, slide for life conditions exist on Mt Shasta. BE PREPARED.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
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Spring is here and that means you must be ready for all conditions at anytime. Below we've highlighted a few things to think about:
- Avalanche Danger & Weather: Late season storms can bring fresh snow and of course wind to the mountains. Avalanche danger can quickly spike due to new wind and storm slabs on top of icy, firm melt/freeze snow. Further, warm and sometimes downright hot days can create loose wet avalanches. Low danger in the cool morning hours can also rapidly spike to higher danger during afternoon hours on sunny aspects. These are two different avalanche probelms associated with different weather patterns, both possible in the same week. A beacon, shovel and probe are essential in our minds, even during Spring time. Always check the avalanche advisory first before climbing and call the ranger station for the latest. As for the weather, spring can bring it all. The point is... you need to bring the appropriate attire to accommodate all weather conditions. Snow, rain, sun, wind... you can count on all of it on Shasta at some point during Spring time. Further, Mt Shasta can often host a cloud cap creating poor visibilty conditions. DO NO climb into a white-out. It is very easy to wander off the WRONG side of Mt Shasta when on the upper mountain, >12,500 feet. This can create a long day and perhaps night for climber, party memebers, rescue resources and family. Play it safe.
- The Slide for Life: Yes, conditions on Shasta are good right now. That said, the snow in the AM hours is very smooth and very firm. These exact conditions have caused serious injury in the past due to a slip/trip/fall and failing to self-arrest. You MUST know how to self-arrest with an ice axe. This is one of your best defenses for a safe trip on Mt Shasta. Practice on slopes of non-consequence and when the snow is soft. If you fall, you must immediately self-arrest or you will take a long, sliding, tumbling fall resulting in serious injury or death. Along with your solid ice axe skills necessary, know how to walk with crampons on. Catching your front points on the cuff of your pant leg is a common way climbers fall. Walk like you've been riding a horse for a month.
- Rime Ice: You've been hearing us talk about this. What is rime ice? Rime ice is super cooled water droplets than freeze upon the first thing they run into. The ice grows into the wind. The exposed rocks on Mt Shasta are plastered in rime ice. This hazard will diminish as the ice flakes off on warm days, but until then... HEADS UP! You absolutely should wear a helmet if climbing. As the days warm, chances increase of getting hit.
A climb of Mt Shasta should not be taken lightly. Our goal is not scare tactics here, but to provide accurate and up to date information so you can plan and prepare for a safe adventure on Mt Shasta, returning home in one piece. We want to prevent accidents, bottom line. For your best chances at a safe climb, be sure you have the proper equipment (ice axe, crampons, helmet, avalanche transceiver, shovel, and probe) and know how to use all of it. Check the weather. Make sound decisions. Keep your group together. Know how to self-arrest. Please call us if you have further questions. 530-926-4511
Forecast Discussion
The ridge of high pressure that brought us the warm weather over the past several days in moving east. To take it's place is a cold front that will begin to bring increasing clouds today, especially over the mountains. Cumulus buildup is much more likely today and we may get some showers out of the cumulus this afternoon. There is also a slight chance for a thunderstorm as well. This front will gain the coast this evening and then cross the region early tonight. Light rain is likely for most areas, however most of the energy is focused to the north and some areas might just see some clouds and winds shift. Air behind the front is pretty chilly, so moday will be noticably cooler. Pending how fast the air moves out, Tuesday morning could be also cold. Keep an eye on forecasted temps and any freeze warnings from the National Weather Service... perhaps you've already begun to move plants and things outside!
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THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 36.73 inches of water, normal is 35.69 inches, putting us at 102% of normal. For the month of April we've received 0.00 inches of water, normal is 0.12 inches, putting us at 0% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 27.24 inches of water, normal is 20.48 inches, putting us at 133% of normal.
Recent Observations
Warm weather continued yesterday. Temperatures in the Old Ski Bowl and on Gray Butte hit high temperatures of 52F and 47F, respectively. Lows last night reached 36F at those weather stations.
On the road cut just before Bunny Flat, a small loose wet slide was observed yesterday, southeast facing, late in the afternoon. (see photo)
On the mountain in Avalanche Gulch, a local reported the snow softening upwards of 11,000 feet, perhaps higher.
Just two days prior, another local skier/climber noted warm temps on the summit plateau... "free of wind and walking around in a T-shirt, perhaps 32 degrees or so out...". On his climb up Avalanche Gulch on April 1st, the climber noted good cramponing though a lot of falling rime ice. We have warned climbers and skiers of this already and it will continue to be a problem. See photos below to understand what we are talking about. Large chunks of rime ice can do some damage!
Some roller balls and small loose wet slides have been observed in other areas on Mt Shasta, below, near and above treeline also.
Other snow conditions on the mountain consist of scattered scabs of wind effected snow and sastrugi features creating for less than ideal skiing. Skiers have been reporting great conditions, however having to link up sections of smooth snow.
At Castle lake yesterday, a large chunk of cornice broke off and created quite the line down Middle Peak. (See photo) Tree wells are starting to show in our lower elevation skiing areas like Castle Lake. Coverage is still decent, but melting fast with the warm temps. Be careful of soft lake edges.
Today, despite above freezing temperatures overnight, increasing clouds and morning temps a few degrees cooler than yesterday will aid in keep the snow in place. I'd expect perhaps a few isolated areas to host wet loose unstable snow that could manifest itself into a small loose wet slide like seen in the picture, however larger instability is unlikely. The snow on the upper mountain continues to consolidate at a slower pace than lower and mid elevations. The past few days of warm weather has helped, however areas of unconsolidate snow still exist up high. The next week, temperatures are predicted to soar and not only become warm, but may we say HOT. It's going to be important to keep an eye on the temps as we'll enter into a potentially dangerous period when rime ice will be actively falling off rocks and a larger loose wet slide possible.
LEFT: Middle Peak at Castle Lake on 4.2.16, a large chunck of cornice broke off and took fall line, dropping a nice looking cliff and remaining intact! Photo: H Meyers / RIGHT: A small loose wet slide on the road cut (6,900 feet) below Bunny Flat, observed on 4.2.16. Photo: N Meyers
This is a fantastic photo by S Rathbun taken on April 1st highlighting the rime ice hazard. Redbanks looms above and is plastered in rime ice. A large chunk as fallen off in this photo and slid down the slope. As climbers make their way up Avalanche Gulch, until all the rime is melted off, this hazard is a serious one.
This photo was also taken on 4.1.16 and highlights a small loose wet slide triggered by a piece of rime ice that fell off Redbanks. This aspect is south facing and about 12,000 feet on Mt Shasta. We've seen this type of slide become much larger in Avalanche Gulch and also is a serious threat on warm days. Photo: S Rathbun
4.1.16 - Looking down Avalanche Gulch with Green Butte ridge to the left. Note sastrugi snow surface conditions. This photo was taken from near The Heart of the Avalanche Gulch route. Lake Helen is barely visible middle, right side of photo. Photo: S Rathbun
Enjoy the backcountry and good climbing as the melt/freeze cycle begins! Be sure to stay on your "A" game this Spring... larger loose-wet slides happen every year on Shasta and can become large enough to cause serious harm. Along with this, falling rime ice and rocks necessitate the need for a helmet. Last, a slide for life on firm, smooth snow in the AM hours is possible....thus an ice axe and self arrest skills are absolutely required. These are some hazards not typically associated with winter conditions. Take note, be prepared, have fun!
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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:
The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape still and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes. These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is CLOSED for the season. http://www.mtshastanordic.org
The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open, however snow is dwindling fast at these locations. One had to drive down the 19 road (Military Pass) a mile or so to get to consistent snow before unloading just a few days ago. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.
The Castle Lake Road is OPEN. The Everett Memorial Highway is OPEN. The Castle Lake and Everett Hwy are plowed year round to the trailheads. The roads are not always first priority, so your dawn patrol powder mission might be ceased if the plow has not made it up yet. Siskiyou County does a great job keeping the roads clear. Be respectful of the plow drivers if you encounter them. If you get to Bunny Flat before or during when the plow is there, please park on the uphill, LEFT side of the parking lot as you drive in. This is uphill and lookers right of the bathrooms. Thank You!
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 40 F, eight degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. Skies are overcast with calm wind.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 37 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 145 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 36 F to 52 F.
Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 37 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 36 F to 47 F. Wind speeds are not available for Gray Butte at this time. The anemometer was taken down due to the need for repairs. Thank you for your understanding.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 42 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 41 F to 61 F. Snow on the ground totals 67 inches with no new snow and 2 inch of settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 39 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 36 F to 52 F. Snow on the ground measures 79 inches with no new snow and 1 inch of settlement. Winds have been WSW in nature with an average of 2 mph, and a maximum gust of 9 mph, ESE.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 34 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 55 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | N/A |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | N/A mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | N/A mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 89 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Sunday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Sunday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Monday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | A 20 percent chance of showers after 11am. Partly sunny | A chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. | Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. |
| Temperature (°F) | 52 | 33 | 44 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Southeast 10-15 mph | South, becoming west after midnight 10-15 mph | North/Northwest 10-15 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Sunday | Sunday Night | Monday | |
| Weather | A 20 percent chance of snow showers after 11am. Partly sunny Windy. | A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. | Mostly sunny |
| Temperature (°F) | 29 | 24 | 26 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Southwest 20-30 mph | Southwest 0 | West 30-40 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0-1 | / 0 |
