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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-04-04 06:39:53
- EXPIRED ON April 5, 2016 @ 6:39 amPublished on April 4, 2016 @ 6:39 am
- Issued by Jon Dove - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
For this morning LOW avalanche danger exists while snow surfaces remain firm at all elevations and aspects. Areas of MODERATE danger may form as the sun softens the snow on E-SE-S-SW aspects below 10,000 feet. Human trigger of loose wet snow instabilities may become possible on sun exposed slopes 35 degrees and steeper. Distribution of loose wet instabilities will vary due to slighly cooler temperatures and moderate winds.
Climbers, be cautious for falling rime ice, firm and smooth snow.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Aspect/Elevation ?
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
With out a doubt, spring has arrived and there are a few things to think about when venturing out into the backcountry or climbing Mount Shasta during this time of year:
- Avalanche Danger & Weather: You may encounter a variety of snow conditions during the spring time. Late season storms can bring fresh snow and high winds to the mountains. Avalanche danger can quickly spike due to new wind and storm slabs on top of icy, firm melt/freeze snow. Further, warm and sometimes downright hot days can create loose wet avalanches. Low danger in the cool morning hours may rise rapidly to higher danger during the afternoon hours on sunny aspects. These are two different avalanche problems associated with different weather patterns with both being possible during the same week, or even the same day. A beacon, shovel and probe continue to be essential, even during Spring time. Always check the avalanche advisory before starting your climb, and call the ranger station for the latest in weather and conditions. Spring time weather patterns can bring it all. The point is... you need to bring the appropriate attire to accommodate all weather conditions. Snow, rain, sun, wind... you can count on all of it on Shasta at some point during Spring time. Further, Mt Shasta can often host a cloud cap creating poor visibility conditions. DO NO climb into a white-out. It is very easy to wander off the WRONG side of Mt Shasta when on the upper mountain, >12,500 feet. This can create a long day and perhaps night for climber, party members, rescue resources and family. Play it safe.
- Firm and smooth snow (slide for Life): Snow conditions on Mount Shasta are great right now. That being said, the snow in the morning hours is quite firm and very smooth. These types of conditions have caused serious injury in the past to those who slip, trip, or fall and fail to self-arrest as they slide. You MUST know how to self-arrest with an ice axe. This is one of your best defenses for a safe trip on Mt Shasta. Practice this and other climbing skills on small slopes in soft snow along the side of a gully or just above Helen Lake. Any where will little consequence if you can not stop. If you fall, you must immediately self-arrest or you will take a long, sliding, tumbling fall resulting in serious injury or death. Along with your solid ice axe skills, know how to walk/climb with crampons on. It is easy to catch the front points of the crampon on the cuff of your pant leg resulting in a fall if you are not careful with each step.
- Rime Ice: We've been talking about rime ice for over a week now. What is rime ice? Rime ice forms on rocks, towers, etc. as super cooled water droplets freeze upon contact with a solid object. The ice grows into oncoming wind. The exposed rocks on Mt Shasta are plastered in rime ice. This hazard will diminish as the ice flakes off on warm days, but until then... HEADS UP! You absolutely should wear a helmet if climbing. As the days warm, chances increase of getting hit by falling ice.
A climb of Mt Shasta should not be taken lightly. Our goal is not scare tactics here, but to provide accurate and up to date information so you can plan and prepare for a safe adventure on Mt Shasta, returning home in one piece. We want to prevent accidents, bottom line. For your best chances at a safe climb, be sure you have the proper equipment (ice axe, crampons, helmet, avalanche transceiver, shovel, and probe) and know how to use all of it. Check the weather. Make sound decisions. Keep your group together. Know how to self-arrest. Please call us if you have further questions. 530-926-4511
Forecast Discussion
Mostly sunny skies gave way to building clouds by late afternoon yesterday, with some thunder rumbling and a brief shower by around 8 pm. Skies cleared overnight as a cold front moved through the area. Clear skies this morning will prevail for the remainder of the day, and temperatures will be slightly cooler as cooler air mass streams in behind the front. A high pressure ridge will begin to build late today into Tuesday, and will amplify rapidly carrying into Wednesday. Strong down slope flow will aid in accelerated warming an drying over our area during the week. It will get down right hot by midweek where record high temperatures will be equaled, if not surpassed. Winds will be light to moderate coming out of a northerly direction today into Tuesday at speeds of 20 to 30 mph above treeline in exposed areas. Ridge top winds above 10,000 feet could see gusts of 40 mph and higher.
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 36.76 inches of water, normal is 35.81 inches, putting us at 102% of normal. For the month of April we've received 0.03 inches of water, normal is 0.35 inches, putting us at 8% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 27.27 inches of water, normal is 20.60 inches, putting us at 132% of normal.
Recent Observations
Reports yesterday from the back country stayed consistent with what we have been talking about over the past couple of days. Snow was generally firm in the morning hours, then softening as the day warmed up. Southerly aspects were host to some roller ball activity directly below rocks that warmed up quickly in the spring sun. Loose wet snow instabilities will remain our chief concern over the coming days. Despite dry snow slabs being the main killer in avalanche incidents, loose wet snow avalanches can be equally as hazardous to back country travelers if the right conditions are met. You could easily be knock of balance or off you feet completely, pushed over a cliff, strained through trees, or into a terrain trap where enough snow may collect to easily bury a person. Despite our snow pack being consolidated, and the arrival of warm spring conditions, don't let your guard down. We still have plenty of snow on steep slopes that may slide in the right circumstances. Always practice safe travel techniques, and keep your situational awareness up. When "casual day" syndrome sets in is when you are likely to run into problems. Stay cautious on southerly facing aspects during the warmest parts of the day.
Climbing Conditions: On his climb up Avalanche Gulch on April 1st, a climber noted good cramponing through a lot of falling rime ice. We have warned climbers and skiers of this already and it will continue to be a problem. See photos below to understand what we are talking about. Large chunks of rime ice can do some damage! Other snow conditions on the mountain consist of scattered scabs of wind effected snow and sastrugi features creating for less than ideal skiing. Skiers have been reporting great conditions, however having to link up sections of smooth snow. Below treeline, tree wells are starting to show dirt in our lower elevation skiing areas like Castle Lake. Coverage is still decent, but melting fast with the warm temps. Be extra careful if considering traveling across the still frozen lake surface. It is getting thin and soft at points around the edges.
LEFT: Middle Peak at Castle Lake on 4.2.16, a large chunk of cornice broke off and took fall line, dropping a nice looking cliff and remaining intact! Photo: H Meyers / RIGHT: A small loose wet slide on the road cut (6,900 feet) below Bunny Flat, observed on 4.2.16. Photo: N Meyers
This is a fantastic photo by S. Rathbun taken on April 1st highlighting the rime ice hazard. Red Banks looms above and is plastered in rime ice. A large chunk as fallen off in this photo and slid down the slope. As climbers make their way up Avalanche Gulch, until all the rime is melted off, this hazard is a serious one.
4.1.16 - Looking down Avalanche Gulch with Green Butte ridge to the left. Note sastrugi snow surface conditions. This photo was taken from near The Heart of the Avalanche Gulch route. Lake Helen is barely visible middle, right side of photo. Photo: S Rathbun
Enjoy the backcountry and good climbing as the melt/freeze cycle begins! Be sure to stay on your "A" game this Spring... larger loose-wet slides happen every year on Shasta and can become large enough to cause serious harm. Along with this, falling rime ice and rocks necessitate the need for a helmet. Last, a slide for life on firm, smooth snow in the AM hours is possible....thus an ice axe and self arrest skills are absolutely required. These are some hazards not typically associated with winter conditions. Take note, be prepared, have fun!
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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:
The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape still and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes. These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is CLOSED for the season. http://www.mtshastanordic.org
The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open, however snow is dwindling fast at these locations. One had to drive down the 19 road (Military Pass) a mile or so to get to consistent snow before unloading just a few days ago. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.
The Castle Lake Road is OPEN. The Everett Memorial Highway is OPEN. The Castle Lake and Everett Hwy are plowed year round to the trailheads. The roads are not always first priority, so your dawn patrol powder mission might be ceased if the plow has not made it up yet. Siskiyou County does a great job keeping the roads clear. Be respectful of the plow drivers if you encounter them. If you get to Bunny Flat before or during when the plow is there, please park on the uphill, LEFT side of the parking lot as you drive in. This is uphill and lookers right of the bathrooms. Thank You!
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 39 F, one degree cooler than yesterday at this time. Skies are clear with calm wind.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 29 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 143 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 29 F to 48 F.
Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 34 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 34 F to 44 F. Wind speeds are not available for Gray Butte at this time. The anemometer was taken down due to the need for repairs. Thank you for your understanding.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 32 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 32 F to 56 F. Snow on the ground totals 65 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 37 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 37 F to 50 F. Snow on the ground measures 76 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement. Winds have been Southerly in nature with an average of 2 mph, and a maximum gust of 12 mph, SSW.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 34 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 52 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | N/A |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | N/A mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | N/A mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 87 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Monday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Monday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Tuesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Mostly Sunny | Partly cloudy | Sunny |
| Temperature (°F) | 46 | 32 | 53 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Northwest 10-15 mph with gusts to 35 mph this morning | North 10-15 mph | North 10-15 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Monday | Monday Night | Tuesday | |
| Weather | Mostly sunny and windy | Partly cloudy and windy | Sunny and windy |
| Temperature (°F) | 24 | 24 | 35 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | West 25-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph | Northwest 0 | North 25-30 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
