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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-04-12 06:43:29

  • EXPIRED ON April 13, 2016 @ 6:43 am
    Published on April 12, 2016 @ 6:43 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Overall, LOW avalanche danger exists for all elevations and aspects. Normal caution advised.
A cooling trend will keep significant loose wet slides on the rack today. Above 10,000 feet, new snow from last night likely did not accumulate enough to cause wind/storm slab concern. 
Be cautious of falling rime ice off exposed rocks. Lightening activity on the mountain is also a serious hazard. Do not climb into a white out and/or ascend the mountain during electrical storms.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Ongoing, small loose-wet avalanches are possible but unlikely for today. Poor overnight re-freeze continues and small point release style slides are being observed below 10,000 feet on southeast aspects on Mt Shasta. A scenario where small loose wet slides are dangerous is when they are paired with a terrain trap: a gully bottom, trees, or a crevasse. With a fairly dramatic cooling trend in effect for today and the remainder of the work week, loose wet danger will decrease.

Above 10,000 feet, up to a couple inches of new snow fell last night. Winds have been very light and it's likely that the new snow fell in a nice and uniform layer, not accumulating enought to cause any serious wind/storm slab danger. However due to lack of high elevation observations, if you are climbing onto the upper mountain, watch out for small pockets of wind deposited snow on leeward ridgelines, near rock outcroppings, depressions, etc. 

A note on lightening: 

Mt Shasta is essentially a 14,000 foot lightening rod. Climbing Mt Shasta or being on the mountain during any kind of electrical activity is a very poor idea... especially if on a ridge route or on the upper mountain. We've seen ice axes spark and buzz and had hair stand on end due to high electrical activity. It is downright scary and the message is clear: go down. Do not play with fire. 

Forecast Discussion

Rain and snow is in the box for the majority of the work week. Friday looks to be the first day of real clearing. Off and on rain and snow showers will occur through Thursday. A nice cooling trend will take place later this week also, lowering snow levels to 4,000 to 5,000 feet. With this cold font, winds out of the southwest/west will pick up into the 20-30 mph range with gusts higher in exposed areas. For today, lingering rain and snow showers for this morning. Clouds are expected to break up and the band will continue to move east. A few light showers tonight are possible. Expect little precip on Wednesday, however as mentioned, the winds will pick up. Wedneday evening through Thursday will bring more precip, no a lot, but enough to wet things down and provide a few inches of snow to the mountains. Friday, we should see a good bit of blue sky!

THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITYSince October 1st (the wet season), we have received 37.15 inches of water, normal is 36.68 inches, putting us at 101% of normal.  For the month of April we've received 0.42 inches of water, normal is 1.22 inches, putting us at 34% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 27.66 inches of water, normal is 21.47 inches, putting us at 128% of normal.

Recent Observations

Temperatures are just about identical to yesterday morning. That said, a cooling trend will take place over the next few days. Yesterday on the mountiain, it was warm with full sun and very little wind above the cloud deck. A bit of snow from this past weekend helped smooth things out at upper elevations. Some small loose-wet point releases were observed off Casaval ridge, all below 10,000 feet, nothing above. The new loose wet point releases were small in size and not enough to bury a person, however one did make it down into climbers gully in Avalanche Gulch depositing a small amount of debris, but again not enough to bury a person.

Small loose wet point releases off Casaval Ridge below 10,000 feet - 4.11.16 - Photo: C Carr / Shasta Mtn Guides

Last night, from 11pm until early this morning, about .5 inches of water was recorded at the Old Ski Bowl weather station. Temperatures did not drop below 35 degrees F. I'd suspect snow levels were about 9 to 10,000 feet. Above this elevation, on the upper mountain, several inches of new snow is possible. Winds have been light overall and while likely a bit of snow was blown around, I think a uniform few inches of new snow fell and smoothed out the snow nicely. No significant wind slabs have been observed from this past weekends storm and with this recent snow, it's probable that not enough snow fell to cause any serious concern. 

Climbing Conditions: Current climbing conditions are good to great. Steadily increasing temperatures this week with overnight lows above freezing will not allow a solid snow re-freeze at night. This could mean post-holing at lower elevations.  At higher elevations (11,000 feet and above), however, snow will refreeze better and be firm in the morning hours making crampons (and ice axe) necessary equipment.
Below are some things to think about when planning your trip this Spring:

  1. Avalanche Danger & Weather: You may encounter a variety of snow conditions during the spring time.  Late season storms can bring fresh snow and high winds to the mountains. Avalanche danger can quickly spike due to new wind and storm slabs on top of icy, firm melt/freeze snow. Further, warm and sometimes downright hot days can create loose wet avalanches. Low danger in the cool morning hours may rise rapidly to higher danger during the afternoon hours on sunny aspects. These are two different avalanche problems associated with different weather patterns with both being possible during the same week, or even the same day. A beacon, shovel and probe continue to be essential, even during Spring time. Always check the avalanche advisory before starting your climb, and call the ranger station for the latest in weather and conditions. Spring time weather patterns can bring it all.  The point is... you need to bring the appropriate attire to accommodate all weather conditions. Snow, rain, sun, wind... you can count on all of it on Shasta at some point during Spring time. Further, Mt Shasta can often host a cloud cap creating poor visibility conditions. DO NO climb into a white-out. It is very easy to wander off the WRONG side of Mt Shasta when on the upper mountain, >12,500 feet. This can create a long day and perhaps night for climber, party members, rescue resources and family. Play it safe. 
  2. Firm and smooth snow (slide for life conditions): Snow conditions on Mount Shasta are great right now. That being said, the snow in the morning hours is very firm and very smooth. These types of conditions have caused serious injury in the past to those who slip, trip, or fall and fail to self-arrest as they slide.  You MUST know how to self-arrest with an ice axe. This is one of your best defenses for a safe trip on Mt Shasta. Practice this and other climbing skills on small, short slopes in soft snow. If you fall, you must immediately self-arrest or you will take a long, sliding, tumbling fall resulting in serious injury or death. Along with your solid ice axe skills, know how to walk/climb with crampons on.  It is easy to catch the front points of the crampon on the cuff of your pant leg resulting in a fall if you are not careful with each step.
  3. Rime Ice:  What is rime ice? Rime ice forms on rocks, towers, etc. as super cooled water droplets freeze upon contact with a solid object. The ice grows into the wind taking on a cauliflower like appearance. The exposed rocks on Mt Shasta at higher elevations are currently plastered in rime ice. This hazard will diminish as the ice flakes off on warm days, but until then... HEADS UP! You absolutely should wear a helmet if climbing. As the days warm, chances increase of getting hit by falling ice until all of it falls off.

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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:

The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape still and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes.  These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees.  Trails are not groomed.  Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track.  These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway.  Thank you, and enjoy!

The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is CLOSED for the season. http://www.mtshastanordic.org

The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open, however snow is dwindling fast at these locations. One had to drive down the 19 road (Military Pass) a mile or so to get to consistent snow before unloading just a few days ago. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.

The Castle Lake Road is OPEN. The Everett Memorial Highway is OPEN. The Castle Lake and Everett Hwy are plowed year round to the trailheads. The roads are not always first priority, so your dawn patrol powder mission might be ceased if the plow has not made it up yet. Siskiyou County does a great job keeping the roads clear. Be respectful of the plow drivers if you encounter them. If you get to Bunny Flat before or during when the plow is there, please park on the uphill, LEFT side of the parking lot as you drive in. This is uphill and lookers right of the bathrooms. Thank You!

The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.

 

 

    Weather and Current Conditions

    Weather Summary

    Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 50 F, one degree warmer than yesterday at this time. Skies are obscured with light rain falling at times and light wind.

    On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...

    Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 35 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 127 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement.  Temperatures have ranged from 35 F to 50 F.

    Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 35 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 35 F to 48 F.  Wind speeds are not available for Gray Butte at this time.  The anemometer was taken down due to the need for repairs.  Thank you for your understanding.

    Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)... 

    Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 40 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 38 F to 56 F. Snow on the ground totals 48 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement.

    Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 37 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 35 F to 51 F. Snow on the ground measures 59 inches with no new snow and 3 inches of settlement. Winds have been southerly in nature with an average of 1-2 mph, and a maximum gust of 7 mph.

    Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.

     

     

     

    CURRENT CONDITIONS at Bunny Flat (6950 ft)
    0600 temperature: 37
    Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: 47
    Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: N/A
    Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: N/A mi/hr
    Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: N/A mi/hr
    New snowfall in the last 24 hours: 0 inches
    Total snow depth: 72 inches

    Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

    Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

    For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
      Tuesday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Tuesday Night
    (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.)
    Wednesday
    (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
    Weather A chance of rain showers before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 50%. A chance of rain and snow showers before 11pm, then a slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy. Chance of precipitation is 30%. A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Increasing clouds.
    Temperature (°F) 48 30 41
    Wind (mi/hr) Southwest 5-10 mph Southwest becoming northwest after midnight 10-15 mph Northwest becoming southwest in the morning 10-15 mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 0 / 0-.5 / 0
    For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
      Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
    Weather Snow showers likely, mainly before 11am. Cloudy. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 60%. A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy. Wind chill values as low as -6. Windy. A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Increasing clouds. Wind chill values as low as -10. Windy.
    Temperature (°F) 23 17 18
    Wind (mi/hr) Southwest 15-25 mph Southwest 2-4 West/Southwest 20-30 mph
    Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) / 2-4 / 0-1 / 1-3

    Disclaimer

    This advisory does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy back country. Use this information for guidance only. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. You may find different conditions in the back country and should travel accordingly. This advisory expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.