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Avalanche Advisory for 2017-04-03 06:31:34
- EXPIRED ON April 4, 2017 @ 6:31 amPublished on April 3, 2017 @ 6:31 am
- Issued by Andrew Kiefer - Mt Shasta Avalanche Center
Bottom Line
Natural and human triggered avalanches are unlikely, and the avalanche danger is LOW at all elevations. LOW danger does not mean the backcountry is free of hazard, and NORMAL CAUTION is advised. As it warms up throughout the day, watch for isolated wet loose avalanches on steep sun exposed slopes, and for falling rime ice at upper elevations on Mount Shasta.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Character ?
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Aspect/Elevation ?
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
Unlikely -
Size ?HistoricVery LargeLargeSmall
Daytime warming and solar radiation have the potential to create wet loose avalanches and to produce falling rime ice. The snowpack has responded well to the heat over the past few days, and any isolated wet loose activity would likely be small. Monitor surface conditions as the upper snowpack thaws throughout the day. If you see rollers balls, or if you find the surface snow to be wet and very unconsolidated, it’s time to change aspects or to move to lower angle terrain. Falling rime ice will be a significant hazard in the alpine on Mount Shasta as it warms up today. If you venture into the alpine, work to minimize your exposure to icefall with your terrain selection and your timing, and plan to avoid being underneath rime ice formations during peak heating hours.
Recent Observations
High temperatures yesterday reached the mid 40’s F throughout the majority of the advisory area. Winds were light to moderate at 8000ft and below, but remained northerly with strong gusts above 10000ft. Today will be the fourth day in a row of clear and sunny weather. The upper snowpack has gone through several melt-freeze cycles during this time, and overall, snow surfaces are smooth and uniform. Overnight, temperatures remained below freezing for several hours, and the corn harvest should be good today as snow surfaces thaw. No avalanches or significant signs of instability have been observed or reported for several days.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
A long wave ridge of high pressure continues to build into the west coast, delivering dry and warm weather to the advisory area. Expect predominantly northwest winds, but variable wind direction is likely throughout the day. Winds above 10000ft will be cranking again, with gusts forecast to be well over 60 mph. Tuesday and Wednesday will bring increasing cloud cover, and a return to unsettled weather is set for Thursday. Enjoy the sunshine while it lasts!
In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 36 F
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Sand Flat - 6,750 ft, the current temperture is 31 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 30 F to 45 F. Snow on the ground totals 104 inches no new snow and 2 inches of settlement.
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600ft, the current temperature is 32 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 26 F to 45 F. Snow on the ground totals 184 inches with no new snow and 1 inch of settlement.
Grey Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 28 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 28 F to 45 F. Winds have averaged 10-25 mph with gusts to 49 mph, and have been variable in direction, blowing from the SE yesterday, and flipping to the NW overnight.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,800 feet, the current temperature is 27 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 27 F to 38 F. Snow on the ground totals 93 inches with no new snow and 1 inch of settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 25 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 25 F to 42 F. Snow on the ground measures 86 inches with no new snow and 2 inches of settlement. Winds have averaged 2-4 mph with gusts up to 11 mph, and have been variable blowing SW, S, and SE.
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 49.46 inches of water, normal is 35.69 inches, putting us at 139% of normal. For the month of April, we have received 0 inches of water, normal is .23 inches, which is 0% of normal. And finally for the year of 2017, we received 28.30 inches of water, normal is 20.48 inches, putting us at 138% of normal.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 31 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 45 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | northwest |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | 5-10 mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | 15 mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 104 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Monday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Monday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Tuesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Sunny | Mostly Cloudy | Mostly Cloudy |
| Temperature (°F) | 46 | 27 | 51 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | north 15-18 mph | northwest becoming east/northeast after midnight 7-9 mph | north/northeast becoming south/southwest in the afternoon 8-11 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Monday | Monday Night | Tuesday | |
| Weather | Sunny and windy. Wind chill values as low as -7 degrees F. | Mostly cloudy and windy | Mostly Cloudy |
| Temperature (°F) | 25 | 23 | 29 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | north 60-70 mph, gusting to 100 mph | north becoming west/northwest 0 | west/northwest 32-37 mph, gusting 65 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
