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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-07 05:25

  • EXPIRED ON February 8, 2020 @ 5:25 am
    Published on February 7, 2020 @ 5:25 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Firm and icy snow surfaces dominate the backcountry. The avalanche danger remains stuck on LOW, but slide-for-life potential is real on steep slopes. Some softening will occur on southerly slopes in the afternoon. Expect strong north/northwest wind near and above treeline. Continue to watch for ice fall on the upper mountain. Wear a helmet, carry an ice axe and crampons and most importantly, know how to use them.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

  • Character ?
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  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
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  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
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Normal caution is advised. Practice good communication and have a travel plan. Carry the proper equipment such as a beacon, shovel and probe and currently including an ice axe, crampons and helmet if on Mount Shasta. Snow surfaces are generally firm and variable. Lower elevations will see modest softening of snow surfaces in sunny areas. Shady slopes will remain crusty.

Forecast Discussion

Climbers interested in ascending Mount Shasta this weekend will need to be prepared for firm, icy and very windy conditions.

*REQUIRED TO CLIMB MT SHASTA*

  • Summit pass ($25) if traveling above 10,000 feet, even if you don't plan on going to the summit. Frequent flyer? Get an annual pass for only 5 dollars more. Annual passes ($30) are only available at the ranger station during business hours (Mon-Fri, 8 AM-4:30 PM).
  • A wilderness permit and human waste pack out bag are also required. 
  • All of these items are available for self-issue at the Bunny Flat trailhead or Mount Shasta & McCloud Ranger Station, or at The 5th Season store in town.

Recent Observations

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Yesterday on Mount Shasta:

  • Avg Snow Depth: 67 inches (HS 170 cm) / Temperatures: 37 F min - 45 F max - 43 F avg / Wind: 9 mi/hr avg - 37 mi/hr max.
  • Surface softening on southerly slopes below 8,400 feet
  • Nuclear winds near and above treeline out of the northwest, steady 30 mi/hr, gusts to 40-50 mi/hr, enough to knock one to the knees
  • No sign of avalanche danger
  • Average snow depths - Castle Lake: 2-3 feet / Eddy Range: 3-4 feet





    [Photos: Koster]

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Mild and dry weather presses on with a bunch of north/northwest wind in the forecast for the next couple days.  Tomorrow looks particularly windy for near and above treeline areas. As for the temps, expect a cooling trend into the weekend, followed up by more uneventful high pressure and warming temperatures next week, 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Rain and snow chances increase by Thursday/Friday.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 4:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 40 32 60 44.5 5
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 39 32 47 40 50 0 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 38 37 45.5 43.5 67 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 38.5 36.5 44.5 40.5 9 37 N
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 38.5 33 44 39 31 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 41.5 32.5 44.5 39.5 2 15 SSE 48 0 1
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Friday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Saturday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Sunny and windy
Temperature (°F) 45 24 30
Wind (mi/hr) North 5-10 Northwest 5-10 Northwest 15-20
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Friday Friday Night Saturday
Weather Sunny, windy Clear, windy Sunny, windy
Temperature (°F) 31 29 28
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 20-30 West 30-40 Northwest 50-60
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2024 (the wet season) 12.90 23.73 54
Month to Date (since Dec 1, 2024) 0.12 1.46 8
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 8.52 47

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.