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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-11 06:35

  • EXPIRED ON February 12, 2020 @ 6:35 am
    Published on February 11, 2020 @ 6:35 am
  • Issued by Ryan Sorenson - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Winds out of the north will continue to keep snow surfaces firm and variable. Some softening will occur on southerly slopes in the afternoon. Avalanche danger is LOW for all elevations and aspects. A slip or fall on steep icy slopes could be difficult to arrest. Wear a helmet, carry an ice axe and crampons, and continue to watch for falling ice if traveling above treeline on Mount Shasta. 

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
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  • Size ?
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Travel using normal caution in the backcountry today. Always carry the proper equipment such as a beacon, shovel, and probe. An ice axe, crampons, and helmet are necessary if planning on traveling above treeline on Mount Shasta.  Lower elevations and south-facing slopes will have some softening of snow surfaces today. More shaded northerly facing and high alpine terrain will remain frozen and firm. Use cautions as existing snow surfaces are firm, icy, and shallow in spots. 

Forecast Discussion

Planning on ascending Mount Shasta this week? Be prepared as current conditions are firm, icy, and windy. Solid ice axe, crampon, and self-arrest skills are mandatory. Thursday will host overcast skies and potentially low hanging cloud layers on Mount Shasta. Do not climb into a whiteout. Always carry a map and compass and/or GPS device and route plan ahead of time. 

*REQUIRED TO CLIMB MT SHASTA*

  • Summit pass ($25) if traveling above 10,000 feet, even if you don't plan on going to the summit. Frequent flyer? Get an annual pass for only 5 dollars more. Annual passes ($30) are only available at the ranger station during business hours (Mon-Fri, 8 AM-4:30 PM).
  • A wilderness permit and human waste pack-out bag are also required. 
  • All of these items are available for self-issue at the Bunny Flat trailhead or Mount Shasta & McCloud Ranger Station or The 5th Season store in town.

Recent Observations

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  • There was a brief lull in the steady and robust northeast winds yesterday afternoon. Calmer winds have allowed for some modest softening of snow surfaces on sunny aspects.
  • Spring-like snow surface conditions continue. Melt-freeze corn snow formed on sunny southerly slopes on Mount Shasta and across the Eddies.  
  • North facing and high elevation slopes remain variable and firm with patches of hard crust, sastrugi, and smooth wind buff. 
  • There is very little to no available snow for wind transport. 
  • No sign(s) of avalanche danger. 
  • Snow depths - Mount Shasta, Ski Bowl: 65 inches / Castle Lake: 30 inches / Mount Eddy: 47 inches

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

We will have another day full of sunshine and wind as high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern over Northern California and Oregon. Moderate breezy wind with strong gusts will be out of the north today.  Daytime high temperatures will reach the lower 40's then temperatures will drop to the lower 30's tonight.

The chance for light snow showers scheduled to arrive on Thursday has now dwindled. Models are showing that the high-pressure ridge will block and hold nearly all of the moisture north of the California Oregon border. Another storm is on track to provide some snow this weekend. Again, snow amounts will be light due to the nearly impenetrable wall of high pressure that has formed. Expect continued dry weather, mild daytime temperatures, and mostly clear skies. 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 33 27 54 38.5 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 26 24 42 31 50 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 31.5 30.5 47.5 37 65 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 37 32.5 42 38 12 49 NNE
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 33.5 29.5 41 36.5 30 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 37.5 34 41.5 37.5 2 14 SW 47 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Tuesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Tuesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 44 29 43
Wind (mi/hr) North 5-15 Northwest 10-15 North 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Tuesday Tuesday Night Wednesday
Weather Sunny, windy Clear, windy Sunny, windy
Temperature (°F) 32 32 30
Wind (mi/hr) North 30-35 North 35-40 Northeast 30-35
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2024 (the wet season) 12.90 24.69 52
Month to Date (since Dec 1, 2024) 0.12 2.42 5
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 3.97 9.48 42

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.