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Avalanche Forecast for 2020-02-21 06:07

  • EXPIRED ON February 22, 2020 @ 6:07 am
    Published on February 21, 2020 @ 6:07 am
  • Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest

Avalanche danger is LOW. Exercise normal caution. Be prepared for a firm snowpack. Long, sliding falls are possible. Bring an ice axe, crampons, and helmet if ascending into alpine terrain. Beware of falling rock, especially in Avalanche Gulch above Helen Lake. Dry and mostly sunny weather will continue.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution

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Avalanche danger is low. There are a lot of firm snow surfaces out there and sliding falls on steep slopes remain the primary concern, along with rockfall, especially in Avalanche Gulch above Helen Lake. Plan and prepare properly in regard to terrain, route, group skills and ability and equipment. Snow surfaces have re-frozen well last night. Daytime warming should be decent today and snow surface melt likely in the late morning to mid-afternoon hours. The extent of surface melt will vary slope by slope and depends on cloud cover, wind, elevation, aspect. You know the game! Loose wet instabilities are not expected to be a problem.  Always stay in the habit of carrying your avalanche rescue gear: a beacon, shovel, and probe. Crampons, ice axe and a helmet are also mandatory for steeper, alpine areas on the mountain. Don't forget to purchase a SUMMIT PASS if ascending above 10,000 feet. 

Forecast Discussion



It's a recreational state-of-emergency, powder hounds. If we all shed enough tears, perhaps it will snow.

Recent Observations

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  • In the last 24 hours, Mount Shasta has received no new snow. Temperatures ranged between 27 and 35 degrees F, a couple degrees warmer than the day prior. Winds have been very light and variable out of the SE-E-SW,  averaging 3 mi/hr with gusts to 11 mi/hr.
  • Overall, the snowpack is stable, slick, and firm. Ridgelines have icy chicken heads and sastrugis. Bowls and gullies have a widespread, bubble-wrap textured surface.
  • Wind protected, sun exposed aspects have been softening up during the late morning / early-mid afternoon hours.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

The predominant weather pattern across the western portion of North America is a split jet stream, resulting in dry, tranquilo weather. Expect a few clouds here and there, but plenty of sunshine too. A quick moving, short wave low was previously thought to provide precipitation for the latter half of this weekend, but water impacts at this point are slim to none. That said, wind will kick up considerably out of the northwest Sunday into Monday.  

A split jet stream making for dry and mellow weather over Northern California [http://squall.sfsu.edu/gif/jetstream_pac_init_00.gif]

 

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 27 27 55 39.5 1 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 27 27 40 34 47 0 0 0
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 32 28 39.5 33.5 63 0 0 0
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 31.5 27.5 35.5 32 3 12 SSW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 34 29.5 49.5 38.5 30 0 0
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 27 27 39.5 33 2 7 WSW 46 0 0
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Friday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Friday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Saturday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Sunny Mostly clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 47 29 46
Wind (mi/hr) East 0-5 Northeast 0-5 North 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Friday Friday Night Saturday
Weather Mostly sunny Mostly clear Sunny
Temperature (°F) 20 19 23
Wind (mi/hr) Southwest 5-10 South 0-5 Northwest 0-5
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2024 (the wet season) 12.90 27.33 47
Month to Date (since Feb 1, 2025) 0.12 5.06 2
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2025) 3.97 12.12 33

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.