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Avalanche Advisory for 2016-03-30 07:01:39
- EXPIRED ON March 31, 2016 @ 7:01 amPublished on March 30, 2016 @ 7:01 am
- Issued by Nick Meyers - Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Bottom Line
LOW avalanche danger exists for all elevations and aspects throughout the forecast area.
Remember, LOW danger is not a green light... Small avalanches in isolated areas or extreme terrain are possible.
Continue to evaluate snow and terrain carefully looking for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.
Avalanche Problem 1: Normal Caution
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Likelihood ?CertainVery LikelyLikelyPossible
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Overall, LOW** danger prevails across the forecast area today. Normal backcountry precautions should be taken. Always carry a beacon, shovel and probe and know how to use them. A helmet, ice axe and crampons are also great tools to have in your kit this time of year, especially if venturing up onto mid and upper mountain levels.
Sunny skies and a slow warming trend for the remainder of the week continues. Increasing clouds and a chance of precip will ensue this weekend.
Keep in mind for today:
1) Loose wet snow instabilities will lead our avalanche problem for the day, however chances are slim of seeing or triggering any significant loose slide posing a threat to life. Naturally, sun exposed easterly and southerly aspects are the slopes that could see some loose-wet action. If you find yourself sinking in deep, wet, unsonsolidated snow, then that is your cue to move onto shadier aspects.
2) Wind slabs are possible near and above treeline on Mt Shasta. Blowing snow is almost always occuring up there and isolated pockets of unstable snow could be encountered. Be able to identify these areas and avoid.
**Low avalanche danger is not the green light to go anywhere, do anything. Continue to practice safe backcountry travel techniques. Accidents happen when you least expect them... don't get casual day syndrome!
Forecast Discussion
Gradual warming of temperatures will continue for the remainder of the work week. High pressure builds bringing clear, cool nights and sunny, mild afternoons. Winds will be light to moderate at most elevations. Our next best chance at precipitation will be this weekend. Increasing clouds on Friday may lead to light precipitation Saturday. Later Sunday, a stronger system also brings the chance of additional precipitation. Climbers will need to keep an eye on both these systems if planning a summit attempt. Even if the storms do not produce much, even a cloud cap on the upper mountain can nix summit attempts by providing very poor visibility. Yes, glorious Spring weather is beginning.... but it is also the time of year when we can have full-value, winter conditions with the flip of a switch. Climbers and skiers need to be prepared and be sure to always check the weather and monitor as you climb.
CLIMBERS & SKIERS:
We are on the edge of climbing season for Mount Shasta. As April and May roll around, this is when we typically get the most climber and skier traffic, AND it is when we get most of our accidents. Conditions right now are fantastic, but with that comes risks. The mountain is completely covered in snow and rime ice. While the rockfall potential is low, other hazards exist. First, weather... Late Winter and Spring can offer the full gammut of weather conditions - winter blizzards, howling wind, freezing cold to beautiful sunny days with flip flops and brews in the parking lot. You need to bring the appropriate attire to accomodate all these weather conditions. Avalanche danger can also rise and fall quickly with passing storms resulting in wind slabs on top of firm, melt/freeze snow and also loose wet related instabilities on those warm days. An avalanche beacon, shovel and probe are essential. As for the climbing, the snow surface conditions are currently very smooth and very firm. If you slip and fall, you WILL take a long slide for life if you do not immediately self-arrest. A helmet, ice axe and crampons essential! (A hiker slipped and fell on Spring Hill a few days ago, sliding into a tree, breaking a leg/hip... yes, the snow is smooth and firm!) Lastly, exposed rocks are currently plastered in rime ice. This rime ice will break off and tumble downhill onto climbers and skiers on warm days, sometimes taking rock with it. The rime ice chunks can be just as hard as rocks and cause serious inury.
Thus, full winter mountaineering conditions exist and a climb of Mt Shasta should not be taken lightly. Our goal is to provide accurate, up to date and factual information so you can plan a safe adventure and come home in one piece! Be sure you have the proper equipment (ice axe, crampons, helmet, avalanche transceiver, shovel, and probe) and know how to use them! Please call us if you have further questions.
THIS SEASON PRECIPITATION for MT SHASTA CITY: Since October 1st (the wet season), we have received 36.73 inches of water, normal is 35.20 inches, putting us at 104% of normal. For the month of March we've received 11.21 inches of water, normal is 5.7 inches, putting us at 196% of normal, and finally... for the year of 2016 we've received 27.24 inches of water, normal is 19.99 inches, putting us at 136% of normal.
Recent Observations
Firm snow conditions in the morning with some softening in the afternoon can be found on sunny aspects at lower and mid elevations. Upper elevations and shadier aspects hold smooth, scoured snow with scabs of sastrugi and wind packed powder.
Snow instabilites have been slim to none due to cooler temperatures, cloud cover and wind keeping loose-wet related issues in place. Small, lingering wind pillows have also not been reactive to trigger. A slow rise in temperatures over the next few days may spark some loose-wet point releases. Larger slides are not expected.
Enjoy the backcountry as the melt/freeze cycle begins! Be sure to stay on your game this Spring... larger loose-wet slides happen every year on Shasta and can become large enough to cause serious harm. Along with this, falling rime ice and rocks necessitate the need for a helmet. Last, a slide for life on firm, smooth snow in the AM hours is possible....thus and ice axe and self arrest skills absolutely required. These are some new hazards not typically associated with winter conditions. Take note, be prepared, have fun!
A real beauty...aerial shot from Jimmy Williams, just a few days ago.
A few squalls moving through the area earlier this week. Castle Spire in view from the top of the Castle Lake area. Photo: Meyers
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LOCAL AREA ROAD, NORDIC, AND SNOWMOBILE PARK STATUS:
The Sand Flat cross country ski trails are in good shape still and ready for your cross country skis and snow shoes. These are backcountry routes marked with blue diamonds on trees. Trails are not groomed. Snow shoers, please blaze a parallel trail to cross country skiers staying out of the skin track. These trails can be accessed via the Everett Memorial Highway. Thank you, and enjoy!
The Mt. Shasta Nordic Center is CLOSED for the season. http://www.mtshastanordic.org
The Pilgrim Creek & Deer Mountain Snowmobile Parks are open, however snow is dwindling fast at these locations. One had to drive down the 19 road (Military Pass) a mile or so to get to consistent snow before unloading just a few days ago. Head to our "Education" tab on our website and find the snowmobile section for trail information, grooming status, and other sledder resources.
The Castle Lake Road is OPEN. The Everett Memorial Highway is OPEN. The Castle Lake and Everett Hwy are plowed year round to the trailheads. The roads are not always first priority, so your dawn patrol powder mission might be ceased if the plow has not made it up yet. Siskiyou County does a great job keeping the roads clear. Be respectful of the plow drivers if you encounter them. If you get to Bunny Flat before or during when the plow is there, please park on the uphill, LEFT side of the parking lot as you drive in. This is uphill and lookers right of the bathrooms. Thank You!
The Five Red Flags of Avalanche Danger any time of year include: 1) Recent/current avalanche activity 2) Whumphing sounds or shooting cracks 3) Recent/current heavy snowfall 4) Strong winds transporting snow 5) Rapid warming or rain on snow.
Weather and Current Conditions
Weather Summary
Good Morning! In Mt Shasta City at 0500, we have a current temperature of 34 F, one degree cooler than yesterday at this time. Skies are mostly clear with light wind.
On Mt Shasta (South Side) in the last 24 hours...
Old Ski Bowl - 7,600 feet, the current temperature is 25 degrees F. Snow on the ground totals 152 inches with no new snow and 1 inch of settlement. Temperatures have ranged from 18 F to 34 F.
Gray Butte - 8,000 feet, the current temperature is 25 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 17 F to 31 F. Wind speeds are not available for Gray Butte at this time. The anemometer was taken down due to the need for repairs. Thank you for your understanding.
Mt Eddy Range (West side of Interstate-5)...
Castle Lake - 5,600 feet, the current temperature is 30 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 22 F to 38 F. Snow on the ground totals 73 inches with no new snow and no settlement.
Mt Eddy - 6,500 feet, the current temperature is 28 degrees F. Temperatures have ranged from 20 F to 35 F. Snow on the ground measures 85 inches with no new snow and one inch settlement. Winds have been southeasterly in nature with an average of 2-4 mph, and a maximum gust of 19 mph, SE.
Always check the weather before you attempt to climb Mt Shasta. Further, monitor the weather as you climb. Becoming caught on the mountain in any type of weather can compromise life and limb. Be prepared.
| 0600 temperature: | 34 |
| Max. temperature in the last 24 hours: | 45 |
| Average wind direction during the last 24 hours: | N/A |
| Average wind speed during the last 24 hours: | N/A mi/hr |
| Maximum wind gust in the last 24 hours: | N/A mi/hr |
| New snowfall in the last 24 hours: | 0 inches |
| Total snow depth: | 102 inches |
Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast
Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS
| For 7000 ft to 9000 ft | |||
|---|---|---|---|
|
Wednesday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
Wednesday Night (10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) |
Thursday (4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) |
|
| Weather | Sunny, with a high near 49. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. | Clear, with a low around 34. North northwest wind around 7 mph becoming east northeast after midnight. | Sunny, with a high near 54. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. |
| Temperature (°F) | 49 | 34 | 54 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Northeast 5-10 mph | North/Northwest --> East/Northeast 5-10 mph | Northeast --> West/Northwest 5-10 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
| For 9000 ft to 11000 ft | |||
| Wednesday | Wednesday Night | Thursday | |
| Weather | Sunny, with a high near 26. Wind chill values as low as -1. Northeast winds 10-20 mph. | Clear, with a temperature rising to around 30 by 9pm. Northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, decreasing. | Sunny, with a high near 31. Blustery, with a north wind 10-20 mph |
| Temperature (°F) | 26 | 30 | 31 |
| Wind (mi/hr) | Northeast 10-20 mph | Northeast 0 | North 10-20 mph |
| Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) | / 0 | / 0 | / 0 |
