You are here

Avalanche Forecast for 2020-03-25 06:30

  • EXPIRED ON March 26, 2020 @ 6:30 am
    Published on March 25, 2020 @ 6:30 am
  • Issued by Aaron Beverly - Mount Shasta Avalanche Center

Avalanche danger is MODERATE. Northwest winds, 14-25 mi/hr, may have combined with 6 inches of new snow to form wind slabs last night. If traveling near or above treeline, evaluate wind, snow and steep, leeward terrain carefully.

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Heightened avalanche conditions on specific terrain features. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully; identify features of concern.

Generally safe avalanche conditions. Watch for unstable snow on isolated terrain features.

Forecast Hotline: (530) 926-9613

Avalanche Problem 1: Wind Slab

  • Character ?
  • Aspect/Elevation ?
  • Likelihood ?
    Certain
    Very Likely
    Likely
    Possible
    Unlikely
  • Size ?
    Historic
    Very Large
    Large
    Small

No concern for wind slabs were seen yesterday afternoon. However, a total of 6 inches of low density snow accumulated at 7,600 ft by late last night and winds switched to the northwest and were in the 14-25 mi/hr range for 7 hours. This is a productive configuration for wind slab formation.

Approach steep, leeward slopes with caution today. Wind slabs will sit on top of smooth, firm snow and will not be well bonded to the old snow. Winds slabs are often lens shaped and hollow sounding.

Shooting cracks and blocking will indicate a nearby wind slab problem. Look for these signs by stomping on small rollovers and in wind drifts as you travel in safe terrain. 

Recent Observations

Submit Snowpack Observations
Submit Avalanche Observations

In the last 24 hours, about 6 inches of snow fell near treeline on Mount Shasta. Winds were mostly from the southwest and were moderate. Around 6 p.m. they switched to northwest, blew at moderate speeds for 7 hours, and peaked at 25 mi/hr. Temperatures ranged from 16 to 26 degrees.

Yesterday afternoon on Gray Butte, southwest winds were light. Three to four inches of new, low density snow had accumulated by 1 p.m. and sat atop a crust that was at times supportable, and at times breakable. Wind drifts up to 8 inches were encountered. A couple of isolated, small wind slabs were found that could easily be triggered, though these did not indicate an overall concern for wind slabs. There hadn't been enough snow and wind to produce significant slabs. Similar conditions were reported along Casaval Ridge.

Weather and Current Conditions

Weather Summary

Cold air will continue to flow in from the north, keeping us cool until at least the weekend. Today, up to an inch of snow may fall with snow levels around 3,000 ft. North and northwest winds will be mostly light, 5-15 mi/hr.

Sunny weather is expected tomorrow and Friday. Showery conditions return Friday night.

24 Hour Weather Station Data @ 5:00 AM

Weather Station Temp (°F) Wind (mi/hr) Snow (in) Comments
Cur Min Max Avg Avg Max Gust Dir Depth New Water Equivalent Settlement
Mt. Shasta City (3540 ft) 24 24 43 34 3 N
Sand Flat (6750 ft) 16 16 31 23 45 3 0 1
Ski Bowl (7600 ft) 10.5 10 26 18.5 73.7 6 0.19 1
Gray Butte (8000 ft) 12 10.5 24 16.5 14 31 NW
Castle Lake (5870 ft) 18 17.5 39.5 26 36 1 1
Mount Eddy (6509 ft) 9.5 9.5 29.5 21.5 1 11 WSW 52.7 3.5 2
Ash Creek Bowl (7250 ft) down
Ash Creek Ridge (7895 ft) down

Two Day Mountain Weather Forecast

Produced in partnership with the Medford NWS

For 7000 ft to 9000 ft
  Wednesday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.) 		Wednesday Night
(10 p.m. to 4 a.m.) 		Thursday
(4 a.m. to 10 p.m.)
Weather Snow showers, mainly after 11 a.m. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Partly cloudy. Sunny.
Temperature (°F) 26 16 33
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 5-10 North 5-10 North 5-10
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.06 / 0.50-1 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0
For 9000 ft to 11000 ft
  Wednesday Wednesday Night Thursday
Weather Snow showers, mainly after 11 a.m. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Low wind chills. Mostly cloudy. Low wind chills. Sunny. Low wind chills.
Temperature (°F) 9 9 13
Wind (mi/hr) Northwest 10-15 North 10-15 North 10-15
Precipitation SWE / Snowfall (in) 0.06 / 0.50-1 0.00 / 0 0.00 / 0

Season Precipitation for Mount Shasta City

Period Measured (in) Normal (in) Percent of Normal (%)
From Oct 1, 2023 (the wet season) 14.95 34.50 43
Month to Date (since May 1, 2024) 2.05 5.00 41
Year to Date (since Jan 1, 2024) 6.02 19.29 31

Disclaimer

This forecast does not apply to Ski Areas or Highways and is for the Mt. Shasta, Castle Lake and Mt. Eddy backcountry. Use this information for guidance only. You may find different conditions in the backcountry and should travel accordingly. This forecast expires 24 hours after the posted time unless otherwise noted.